AFL finals week 2 betting: Swans to steamroll Cats flat and out of flag race

Updated: September 13, 2017

Week 2 of the AFL finals kicks-off on another wintry night at the MCG where the rampaging Swans will take on a Geelong side reeling from a lop-sided defeat at the hands of the Tigers in last week’s qualifying final; overall record: 73-4-50, +51.32 units


AFL second semi-final: Geelong (15-1-6) v Sydney (14-8)
Where: MCG, Melbourne, Vic
When: Friday, September 15, 7.50pm (AET)
Line: Sydney -18.5, O/U 157.5
Confirmed bets: Sydney -18.5 (three units @ $1.92)

TIW says: The charge of the Tigers into the 2017 finals is the talk of the AFL world, and that will suit John Longmire and his Sydney Swans down to the ground. The Bloods barely made it out of second gear as they smashed Essendon in last week’s elimination final in front of an AFL-record crowd at the SCG. Sydney poured on 10 goals in a second quarter avalanche to set-up a 65-point victory – their 15th from their past 17 matches after infamously starting the season 0-6. Importantly, Longmire could rest his prime movers throughout the second half, most notably Lance Franklin after he picked a cork to his thigh.


That result sent the Swans into a preliminary final match-up from last year against Geelong – a match the Swans won comfortably. Indeed, Sydney has had Geelong’s measure in recent years, winning five of six. Lewis Melican is some chance of returning from a quad injury but the Swans’ medical room is otherwise empty. These sides met as recently as round 20. Both sides were missing key players (Josh Kennedy and Patrick Dangerfield) but Sydney quickly took the Simonds Stadium crowd out of the game with five of the first six goals as they cruised home by 46 points. Sydney are 25-17 ATS as an interstate favourite since 2012, covering four of their past five.

The picture couldn’t be more different in the Cats’ camp. They look set to lose Cam Guthrie and Jake Kolodjashnij to injury while skipper Joel Selwood looked proppy in last week’s 51-point loss to Richmond after an early-than-expected return from ankle surgery. That margin probably flattered Geelong with the Tigers posting a nervy 3.7 in the first half to keep Geelong close. But once the afterburners were applied (Richmond piled on 10 of the last 12 goals of the game), the Cats were blown off the park. Their total of 40 points was the first sub-50 score since round 1, 2011. The loss continued their poor finals record.


Since claiming the 2011 Grand Final, the Cats have lost seven of their past nine finals. Chris Scott will almost certainly recall Daniel Menzel after his mysterious absence last week but his inclusion may be too little too late for a club that CEO Brian Cook said may be suffering “finals fatigue”. Geelong supporters will also point to the fact that their finals are being played at the MCG rather than at their Simonds Stadium base but we’d have though Scott could have used that fact to motivate his players. Instead, their lack of pace was exposed by the Tigers and it could be a similar story here. Geelong are 13-22 ATS at the MCG since 2012, covering just one of their past 11.


Week 1 finals results update: 2-0-0, +2.72 units

Sydney -36.5 v Essendon (two units @ $1.91) WIN (121-56)
Port Adelaide v West Coast +14.5 (one unit @ $1.90) WIN (76-78)

Overall results

Three-unit bets: 20-1-6, +36.2 units
Two-unit bets: 23-2-17, +10.82 units
One-unit bets: 32-1-27, +4.3 units



• Selections are listed in three categories – 1) Suggested (likely bet but yet to be finalised); 2) Confirmed (locked in at the price listed); and 3) Leans (tips, but not recommended bets); all times quoted are Australian Eastern Time (AET); prices with thanks to William Hill (except where markets are not available), correct at time of publication. Results/comments on today’s games/races will follow in the next post.

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