NRL finals betting (week 1): Everything lines up for Roosters to progress over Broncos

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Updated: September 8, 2017

The second-placed Roosters and third-placed Broncos head into this qualifying final in winning form. However, the Sydneysiders look to have an edge in their line-up with big guns Dylan Napa and Aidan Guerra coming back in fit and firing after a week’s rest. Our NRL expert James Potter from bigjimwins.com has declared this opening NRL qualifying final as ‘D-Day’ for the Roosters: “They have the talent, home field advantage and should win”.

 

NRL qualifying final: Sydney Roosters (17-7) v Brisbane Broncos (16-8)
Where: Allianz Stadium, Sydney, NSW
When: Friday, September 8, 7.55pm (AET)
Line: Roosters -4, O/U 38

Confirmed bet: Roosters WIN (three units @ $1.60)

TIW says: The chase for the Telstra Premiership gets serious tonight with the opening final of the 20-17 NRL season, featuring as blockbuster match-up between the Sydney Roosters and Brisbane Broncos. The loser will be get another bite of the cherry, while the winner gets the luxury of the week off and being one win away from the Grand Final. The visitors suffered a major blow in the lead-up to this clash, with skipper Darius Boyd ruled out with a hamstring injury suffered in last week’s win over the Cowboys. Boyd will be replaced at fullback by Kodi Nikorima whose place in the halves is set to be filled by veteran Benji Marshall.

 

Tevita Pangai Junior (also out with a hamstring injury) has been replaced on the bench by Jai Arrow, who is joined by David Mead on the interchange. Brisbane finished the year as the second best attacking team and the fourth rated defensive side. They came home strong with eight wins in their last 11 games and bounced back from a poor home loss to Parramatta with a gritty win over North Queensland in Townsville. The Broncos have conceded 12 points or fewer in four of their past five. There’s been little to separate the sides over the years with the ledger locked at five wins apiece since 2012. Brisbane were big winners when they met at Suncorp Stadium earlier in the year but the Roosters exacted revenge in the return fixture.

This is their first finals meeting since 2015 when a Boyd intercept try in the opening minute set the tone for a Brisbane win. The Roosters should be at full strength, with the return of winger Daniel Tupou from a groin injury, while Dylan Napa and Aidan Guerra are expected to return after being rested for last week’s clash against the Titans. Sydney will be buoyed by their narrow 18-16 victory over the Broncos at Allianz Stadium in round 13 where skipper Boyd Cordner (pictured below) scored a double. The Roosters have won the past four meetings between the sides at the Allianz Stadium and eight in a row against all opposition at the venue.

 

Sydney finished the year second on the ladder but stumbled to the line after a disastrous showing against the Gold Coast at home where they pinched victory on the bell. They finished the year with three wins in a row but their last victory by more than a converted try came against Newcastle back in round 20. They finished the year ranked seventh in attack and third in defence. The past three games between the teams have all tallied 40 points or fewer. The Roosters have covered just four of their past 10 at Allianz while the Broncos have covered three of four since 2014. Brisbane are 19-12 ATS as an underdog since 2014 with a 13-6 ATS record interstate as an underdog.

 

 

• Selections are listed in three categories – 1) Suggested (likely bet but yet to be finalised); 2) Confirmed (locked in at the price listed); and 3) Leans (tips, but not recommended bets); all times quoted are Australian Eastern Time (AET); best AU price available is quoted, correct at time of publication. Results/comments on this week’s games will follow in the next post.

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