AFL finals betting preview: Big names to miss Crows, Giants qualifying final

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Updated: September 6, 2017

The table-topping Adelaide Crows boast the league’s highest-scoring attack but this qualifying final also featuring the Greater Western Sydney Giants will be decided around the packs in what are expected to be less than perfect conditions at the Adelaide Oval. With a slight edge in finals experience for the visiting GWS Giants, we’re expecting nothing except a tight and brutal war as the 2017 AFL finals kick-off tonight; overall record: 71-4-49, +45.8 units

 

AFL first qualifying final: Adelaide (15-1-6) v GWS Giants (14-2-6)
Where: Adelaide Oval, Adelaide, SA
When: Thursday, September 7, 7.50pm (AET)
Line: Adelaide -13.5 ® -14.5 ® -10.5, O/U 173.5

Confirmed betting: GWS Giants +10.5 (one unit @ $1.92)

TIW says: The mercury was well into the 30s when Adelaide faced the GWS Giants in the 2017 AFL season opener. On Thursday night at the Adelaide Oval, it’s unlikely to crack double figures as a south-east of the country continues to be buffered by a frigid Antarctic blast. It’s against such a backdrop that the Crows and Giants will battle to become the first side into the preliminary finals. The biggest news in the lead-up has focussed on Rory Sloane – after an operation to remove his appendix last week, the champion on-baller has been declared a non-starter for tonight’s match-up.

 

He joins Wayne Milera and Alex Keath among the omissions while Daniel Talia, captain Taylor Walker and Hugh Greenwood return. News of Sloane’s absence dropped the Crows’ favouritism from 14.5 to 10.5 points. Adelaide expect grieving ruckman Sam Jacobs (who led the competition in hitouts during the home and away season) to play after brother Aaron died last week from an undisclosed illness. Minor premiers for just the second time since joining the competition in 1993, the Crows built their success in 2017 on the back of the best attack in the competition (averaging 109 points per game). They are also the top ranked team for marks inside 50 and second for inside 50s overall.

A knee injury has forced Greater Western Sydney forward Devon Smith (pictured below) out of this qualifying final while veteran Steve Johnson has paid the price for a recent run of poor form as his career winds down. Former Fremantle utility Matt de Boer and Harrison Himmelberg have been named as replacements. Coach Leon Cameron said further changes to his selected 22 are possible (particularly to his tall forward line) if the forecast wild weather eventuates. Like the Crows, the Giants kick-off their finals campaign off a final round defeat after they turned in a tepid display against the Cats at Simonds Stadium.

 

That meant they slipped to fourth having had the chance to finish in the top two. GWS have scored just one win in seven outings against Adelaide. In their only meeting this year, the Giants led by 14 points at quarter-time before the Crows went into overdrive, booting 20 goals to 10 to run away with the season opener by 56 points. The Crows have won nine of their 12 games at the Adelaide Oval this season while the Giants went 4-1-5 on their 10 trips away from Sydney this year. GWS have covered 11 of their past 15 as an interstate outsider, and that’s the way we’ll be playing tonight.

 

Round 23 results update: 3-0-0, +5.73

Collingwood +22.5 v Melbourne (one unit @ $1.92) WIN (99-83)
Brisbane v North Melbourne +200.5 (two units @ $1.88) WIN (79-130)
Port Adelaide 60+ v Gold Coast (three units @ $2.05) WIN (135-20)

Overall results

Three-unit bets: 19-1-6, +33.5 units
Two-unit bets: 22-2-17, +9.0 units
One-unit bets: 30-1-26, +3.3 units

 

 

• Selections are listed in three categories – 1) Suggested (likely bet but yet to be finalised); 2) Confirmed (locked in at the price listed); and 3) Leans (tips, but not recommended bets); all times quoted are Australian Eastern Time (AET); prices with thanks to William Hill (except where markets are not available), correct at time of publication. Results/comments on today’s games/races will follow in the next post.

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