AFL round 22 betting (August 18): Crows, Swans in Friday night classic

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Updated: August 18, 2017

Sydney are in sublime form, while ladder-leaders Adelaide have barely put a foot wrong all season. In a possible grand final preview, these sides clash at the Adelaide Oval tonight to kick-off the second last round of the home and away season. The Swans will be strengthened by the return of skipper Josh Kennedy, while Crows guns Rory Sloane (pictured below) and Taylor Walker will also line up after being cleared of injuries. With respect to the Swans’ recent form, we can’t go past the Crows at home; overall record: 68-4-47, +43.07 units – latest AFL ladder here

AFL round 22: Adelaide (15-1-4) v Sydney (12-8)
Where: Adelaide Oval, Adelaide, SA
When: Friday, August 11, 7.50pm (AET)
Lines: Adelaide -8.5, O/U 171.5

Confirmed bet: Adelaide -8.5 (one unit @ $1.92)

TIW says: It’s being touted as a grand final preview, which is remarkable given that one of the combatants lies outside the top four. However, it’s not unreasonable to picture the Adelaide Crows and Sydney Swans facing off in the 2017 premiership decider at the MCG in six weeks’ time. The Swans enter the penultimate round of the home and away season having won 12 of their past 14 games after losing their first six. They are the best team in the competition since round 7, with a percentage of 153.96 per cent in that period.

The Crows are ranked second, with nine wins across the same number of games. Last week the Swans handed the Freo Dockers a frightful hiding at the SCG – their 104-point victory was the biggest by any side this season and the biggest margin ever between the two teams. Lance Franklin led the way with four while 11 of his teammates also booted goals. The Swans, who regain Josh Kennedy for the trip to the Adelaide Oval, have covered 14 of 18 after scoring 130 points and are 13-12 ATS as an interstate outsider. Adelaide lead the competition with a 15-4-1 record and have been the team to beat all season.

 

The Crows have not lost any of their past seven matches (which includes that draw with Collingwood) with four wins of 40-plus over that stretch. Adelaide’s average of 113 points per game is a clear best in scoring while their defence ranks fourth. Only one of Adelaide’s losses this year has come against a top six team. They are also ranked number one for inside 50s, marks inside 50, quarters won, contested possessions and clearances. The Swans have won five of their past six meetings although the Crows still hold a 23-15 win/loss advantage in their 38 overall meetings.

It will be only the third time the two clubs have met at Adelaide Oval, with the ledger equal at 1-1. The in-form Swans have won five of their past six interstate games this season. The Swans tore the Crows apart with a devastating first half in last year’s semi-final at the SCG. The Swans kicked seven goals to three in the opening quarter and led by 37 points at the main break. Kennedy had a massive game, finishing with 42 disposals. The Crows have covered six of eight when favoured by less than three goals at the Adelaide Oval and are 8-2 ATS as a favourite on their home deck this year.

 

Round 21 results update: 2-0-1, +1.56 units

Three-unit bets: 18-1-6, +30.45 units
Two-unit bets: 21-2-16, +9.24 units
One-unit bets: 29-1-25, +3.38 units

Brisbane v Gold Coast +202.5 (three units @ $1.88) WIN (142-84)
Geelong v Richmond WIN & -160.5 (two units @ $3.05) LOSE (80-66)
Essendon v Adelaide -28.5 (one unit @ $1.92) WIN (80-123)

 

 

• Selections are listed in three categories – 1) Suggested (likely bet but yet to be finalised); 2) Confirmed (locked in at the price listed); and 3) Leans (tips, but not recommended bets); all times quoted are Australian Eastern Time (AET); prices with thanks to William Hill (except where markets are not available), correct at time of publication. Results/comments on today’s games/races will follow in the next post.

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