NRL betting (round 22 for August 4): Back to the SCG for Heritage Round

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Updated: August 4, 2017

Our NRL man James Potter of bigjimwins.com is with the Dragons and Cowboys at the line on a huge Friday night of NRL action in Sydney and Townsville – latest NRL standings here

 

NRL round 22: St George Illawarra Dragons (10-9) v South Sydney Rabbitohs (6-13)
Where: SCG, Sydney, NSW (pictured below)
When: Friday, August 4, 6pm (AET)
Line: Dragons -6.5, O/U 40

Confirmed bet: Dragons -6.5 (one unit @ $1.92)

TIW says: St George Illawarra have been challenged to lay it all out in Friday’s NRL clash against South Sydney as they aim to avoid dropping out of the top eight for the first time this year. The Dragons’ shock defeat to Newcastle not only all but ended their chance of a crucial top-four finish, but left them in danger of being overtaken by ninth-placed Penrith. Coach Paul McGregor is adamant his men have proven they can defy history and challenge for the title from the bottom half of the eight. They’ve just got to get there first, avoiding being just the second team in the NRL era to miss the finals after opening the season with eight wins from their first 12 matches.

For the 14th-placed Rabbitohs, Zane Musgrove will start in place of Dave Tyrrell at the SCG. South Sydney have lost four straight (the last three by margins of 13-plus) and 10 of their past 13. Souths have averaged just 13 points per game over the last month. Their last win away from ANZ was against an understrength Penrith team in round 6. The Rabbitohs had won five straight at the SCG since 2009 but lost to the Dragons in horrendous conditions in round 3 last season. Souths have won eight of the past 10 matches played against the Dragons overall. The Saints have scored 236 first-half points this year (second in the NRL), while the Rabbitohs have conceded 268 first-half points (first in the NRL).

 

 

NRL round 22: North Queensland Cowboys (12-7) v Melbourne Storm (15-4)
Where: 1300SMILES Stadium, Townsville, Qld
When: Friday, August 4, 7.50pm (AET)
Line: Storm -4, O/U 37.5

Confirmed bet: Cowboys +4 (one unit @ $1.91)

TIW says: North Queensland say they must improve their ruck work and nullify Cameron Smith’s impact if they are to stop NRL frontrunners Melbourne in Townsville. Skipper Smith produced one of his best games of the season in his team’s 40-6 romp last round over Manly, with his sniping runs helping to lay on four tries. Thanks to Smith, the Storm lead the competition in in dummy-half runs while North Queensland rank 14th. Cowboys veteran prop Scott Bolton said slowing down Smith and company on Friday night and winning the battle of the ruck was key. The last time the sides met, they were both missing their State of Origin stars and the Storm snatched a golden point win at AAMI Park.

The Cowboys blew their chance for a top-four berth last week when they allowed the Sydney Roosters to score 16 unanswered points for a 22-16 loss. Melbourne are the form team in the premiership, leading the way with a 15-4 record. They have won their past two and seven of their past nine and enter this match-up off a 40-6 demolition of Manly. The Storm have the best rated attack and defence in the competition. Billy Slater returns for the Storm at fullback, while Ryley Jacks has been named to replace the injured Cameron Munster at five-eighth. The Storm have won 15 of the past 20 clashes with the Cowboys, though the past six in Townsville have been split evenly. The Storm are 4-10 ATS interstate favoured by 4.5 points or more.

 

 

• Selections are listed in three categories – 1) Suggested (likely bet but yet to be finalised); 2) Confirmed (locked in at the price listed); and 3) Leans (tips, but not recommended bets); all times quoted are Australian Eastern Time (AET); best AU price available is quoted, correct at time of publication. Results/comments on this week’s games will follow in the next post.

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