AFL round 20 betting (August 4): Punters flock to Swans to defeat Geelong

Updated: August 3, 2017

Cold and breezy conditions combined with two determined sides desperate to shore up their top eight positions should make for a tight and low scoring affair at Simonds Stadium tonight where Geelong will play host to the Sydney Swans; overall record: 65-4-42, +43.95 units – latest AFL ladder here

AFL round 20: Geelong (12-1-5) v Sydney (10-8)
Where: Simonds Stadium, Geelong, Vic
When: Friday, August 4, 7.50pm (AET)
Lines: Sydney -8.5, O/U 162.5

Confirmed bet: -162.5 (one unit @ $1.90)

TIW says: Friday night match-ups don’t come much bigger than this as Geelong host Sydney to Simonds Stadium for a crucial clash heading into the final month of the home and away season. The Cats are second on the ladder with 12 wins; one full game behind top-placed Adelaide after the Crows’ draw with Collingwood on Sunday.

They comfortably accounted for a tired Carlton outfit on Saturday night by 65 points, which was their fourth win in six games. The victory was spearheaded by Tom Hawkins’ six goals, but came at a cost with reigning Brownlow medallist Patrick Dangerfield (pictured below) suspended for a week for his tackle on Matthew Kreuzer. Nakia Cockatoo also misses due to a hamstring injury with Zach Guthrie and Sam Simpson called up in their place.

The Cats have failed to win any of their past three against top eight opposition although one of those results was a draw with the Giants. Geelong rank second in scoring and seventh in defence and rate highly across several other state categories. They lead the league in tackles, third for scoring accuracy, fourth for marks inside 50s and fifth in contested possessions. The Cats have covered 11 of their past 15 at Simonds Stadium.


But it’s far from a perfect set-up for the Cats tonight. The Swans have won four of five over Geelong, who were smashed in last year’s preliminary final against Sydney with a seven-goal-to-none first-quarter blitz that blew the game apart. Geelong never recovered and lost by 37 points. The Cats have won seven in a row at their home fortress, although their most recent loss there was at Simonds Stadium was to the Swans in round 16 last year.

The Swans are sixth and at the head of a logjam of teams on 10 wins that extends down to the Western Bulldogs in ninth. Their charge to September that included seven straight wins and 10 since round seven hit a road-hump last Friday night when they lost a thriller to Hawthorn at the MCG. Josh Kennedy was hampered due to a hamstring tweak while Lance Franklin was also below his best.

At least he is available after he escaped suspension for his run-in with ex-teammate Luke Hodge. Kennedy has been omitted for this clash but the Swans regain Jake Lloyd, Kurt Tippett, Sam Reid and Gary Rohan. The past three clashes between the Cats and Swans have gone under the total while Sydney are 8-17 ‘over/under’ as an outsider when playing outside of NSW.


Other round 20 games (AET)

Saturday, August 5 (1.45pm) – GWS Giants v Melbourne (UNSW Canberra Oval, Canberra, ACT)
Saturday, August 5 (2.10pm) – Essendon v Carlton (MCG, Melbourne, Vic)
Saturday, August 5 (4.35pm) – Brisbane v Western Bulldogs (Gabba, Brisbane, Qld)
Saturday, August 5 (7.25pm) – North Melbourne v Collingwood (Etihad Stadium, Melbourne, Vic)
Saturday, August 5 (7.40pm) – Fremantle v Gold Coast (Domain Stadium, Perth, WA)
Sunday, August 6 (1.10pm) – St Kilda v West Coast (Etihad Stadium, Melbourne, Vic)
Sunday, August 6 (3.20pm) – Richmond v Hawthorn (MCG, Melbourne, Vic)
Sunday, August 6 (4.40pm) – Adelaide v Port Adelaide (Adelaide Oval, Adelaide, SA)


Round 19 results update: 1-0-2, -1.2 units

Three-unit bets: 17-1-5, +30.81 units
Two-unit bets: 19-2-14, +9.6 units
One-unit bets: 27-1-23, +3.54 units

Carlton +30.5 v Geelong (two units @ $1.91) LOSE (58-123)
GWS Giants -45.5 v Fremantle (one unit @ $1.92) LOSE (98-86)
Gold Coast v Richmond -170.5/total (two units @ $1.90) WIN (65-98)


• Selections are listed in three categories – 1) Suggested (likely bet but yet to be finalised); 2) Confirmed (locked in at the price listed); and 3) Leans (tips, but not recommended bets); all times quoted are Australian Eastern Time (AET); prices with thanks to Ladbrokes (except where markets are not available), correct at time of publication. Results/comments on today’s games/races will follow in the next post.

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