State of Origin game 3 betting: NSW to defy history in Brisbane decider

Updated: July 12, 2017

It’s being billed as one of the biggest Origin games of all-time. NSW will need to overcome an awful record in Origin deciders at Suncorp Stadium, while the Maroons will need to wrap up the series without future immortal Johnathan Thurston and Queensland stalwart Darius Boyd. Queensland have won 10 of the last 11 series, while NSW haven’t won a series since 2014. Our NRL expert James “Big Jim” Potter of put it succinctly – no Thurston, no Queensland!


State of Origin, Game 3: Queensland v New South Wales
Where: Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane, Qld
When: Wednesday, July 12, 8.15pm (AET)
Line: NSW -2.5, O/U 32.5

Confirmed bet: NSW WIN (two units @ $1.73)

TIW says: There are times when the hype of State of Origin football overtakes the reality of the situation, but that’s not the case ahead of one of the most hotly-anticipated deciders in the history of the series at Suncorp Stadium tonight. The Blues blew Queensland off the park in Game 1, 28-4, with an up-tempo style of play that was too hot for the Maroons’ ageing side. It looked a similar storyline in Game 2 when NSW skipped out to a 16-6 half-time lead against Kevin Walters’s new-look side at ANZ Stadium. However, Dane Gagai’s late try and Johnathan Thurston’s sideline conversion helped the Maroons stun the Blues 18-16 in one of the great contests in Origin history.


Queensland have been forced to make changes to their side due to injuries suffered by both Johnathan Thurston and Darius Boyd. Cameron Munster comes into the side, replacing Thurston to form an all-Melbourne Storm spine. Michael Morgan moves off the bench to replace Boyd in the centres, while Broncos halfback Ben Hunt comes onto the bench as the utility. Fullback Billy Slater sent a scare through the Maroons camp after rolling his ankle at training but is expected to take his spot in the no.1 jersey.

The Blues have had the luxury of naming the same 17 for the three matches of the series – the first time NSW have kept an unchanged line-up through an Origin series since 1996. Notably, Phil Gould’s Blues achieved a clean-sweep over the Maroons by taking the same 17 men through all three games that year. Blues skipper Boyd Cordner has been battling a calf injury in the lead-up to the decider, but is expected to take his spot in the side.


Indeed, the Blues have not been forced to endure endless speculation over selections this series and there is consensus that Laurie Daley may have come up with the right combination. Suncorp Stadium is an intimidating venue for a New South Welshman at the best of times. The Blues managed to conquer their demons and subdue the pro-Maroon crowd with a dominant performance in Game 1 but repeating that in a series decider may be an entirely different matter. New South Wales have achieved a ‘Suncorp double’ only once before (again in 1996). Queensland have won the past six deciders including four in Brisbane while NSW have won just two of the 11 all-time deciders at Suncorp.



• Selections are listed in three categories – 1) Suggested (likely bet but yet to be finalised); 2) Confirmed (locked in at the price listed); and 3) Leans (tips, but not recommended bets); all times quoted are Australian Eastern Time (AET); best AU price available is quoted, correct at time of publication. Results/comments on this week’s games will follow in the next post.

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