AFL round 8 betting (for May 12): Revenge spot for Eagles with Dogs in town

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Updated: May 11, 2017

Conditions will be cool but clear in the West for tonight’s round 8 opener between the Eagles and Dogs at Domain Stadium – we’re expecting a tight and tough tussle where the total isn’t likely to surpass the quoted total of 168.5; overall record: 29-3-18, +20.78 units

AFL round 7: West Coast Eagles (5-2) v Western Bulldogs (5-2)
Where: Domain Stadium, Perth, WA
When: Friday, May 12, 8.10pm (AET)
Lines: West Coast -15.5, O/U 168.5

Confirmed bets: West Coast 1-39 (one unit @ $2.10), -168.5 (one unit @ $1.90)

TIW says: It’s fourth v fifth to kick-off round 8 of the AFL home and away season in a rare Friday night game in Perth where the West Coast Eagles will host the Western Bulldogs. It’s a match that the home side will have circled when the fixture was released after the Bulldogs belted up West Coast to the tune of 47 points in an elimination final, on this ground, last year. It was a massive upset that set the Dogs on the road to their first flag since 1954, while sending the Eagles on the way to a bitter summer of soul-searching.

There will be a significantly different look to Luke Beveridge’s side tonight with no Jake Stringer, Bobby Murphy or Josh Dunkley while Dale Morris, Jordan Roughead and recruit Travis Cloke remain sidelined. Big man Jack Redpath returns along with youngsters Bailey Dale and Lukas Webb. The reigning premiers have yet to hit their straps in 2017 but are still a respectable 5-2 after a controversial win over the Tigers last Saturday night in which they trailed by 32 points during the second term.

 

For the Eagles, Mark Hutchings and Jonathan Giles have been omitted with Fraser McInnes and Liam Duggan recalled. Like the Bulldogs, they’re missing key big men (Nic Naitanui and Scott Lycett) but have the core of their best XXII intact. After that shock 50-point loss to Hawthorn at the MCG, the Eagles responded with a much sterner performance to defeat the Power at the Adelaide Oval by 10 points last week. Despite the absence of their best two ruckmen, the Eagles should have an advantage out of the centre.

The Dogs are the worst centre clearance team in the competition, averaging 10.9 per game, and are ranked 17th for hit-outs. The Eagles are 10th in both categories. Their defence, for the most part, has been key, allowing more than 87 points just once in their last five games. Defensively the Eagles rank sixth this year. The Dogs’ shock elimination final victory was a rare win in Perth – their only triumph from the last nine trips west. West Coast had won each of the previous four clashes at Domain Stadium by more than 10 goals.

 

Other round 8 games

Saturday, May 13: Hawthorn v Brisbane
Saturday, May 13: St Kilda v Carlton
Saturday, May 13: GWS Giants v Collingwood
Saturday, May 13: Essendon v Geelong
Saturday, May 13: Adelaide v Melbourne
Sunday, May 14: Richmond v Fremantle
Sunday, May 14: Gold Coast v Port Adelaide
Sunday, May 14: North Melbourne v Sydney

 

Round 7 results update: 4-0-1, +6.26 units

Three-unit bets: 8-1-1, +18.93 units
Two-unit bets: 8-2-6, +2.72 units
One-unit bets: 12-12, -0.87 units

North Melbourne v Adelaide +176.5/total (three units @ $1.90) WIN (145-86)
Gold Coast v Geelong +195.5 (two units @ $1.91) WIN (124-99)
Fremantle -8.5 v Essendon (two units @ $1.93) WIN (116-79)
Collingwood v Carlton -161.5 (one unit @ $1.88) WIN (56-79)
Melbourne -14.5 v Hawthorn (one unit @ $1.92) LOSE (91-94)

 

• Selections are listed in three categories – 1) Suggested (likely bet but yet to be finalised); 2) Confirmed (locked in at the price listed); and 3) Leans (tips, but not recommended bets); all times quoted are Australian Eastern Time (AET); prices with thanks to Ladbrokes (except where markets are not available), correct at time of publication. Results/comments on today’s games/races will follow in the next post.

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