NHL Stanley Cup Final betting (June 1): Back to Pittsburgh for Game 2

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Updated: May 31, 2017

The Pittsburgh Penguins landed the first blow in the Stanley Cup Final after a weird Game 1 and look to take a 2-0 lead over a Nashville Predators outfit that looked far from overawed on the game’s biggest stage; playoff record: 14-8-21, -1.34 units; overall record: 250-29-205, +55.84 units

 

Stanley Cup Final, game 2: Nashville Predators @ Pittsburgh Penguins (Pittsburgh lead 1-0)
Where: PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh, PA
When: Thursday, June 1, 10am (AET)
Prices: Nashville $2.44, Pittsburgh $1.63, O/U 5.5

Confirmed bets: -5.5/total (two units @ $1.75), Penguins to win series 4-2 (one unit @ $5.36)

TIW says: Little was resolved in Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Final despite Pittsburgh’s seemingly comfortably 5-3 win. The Penguins were outshot 26-12 and went 37 minutes without worrying Pekka Rinne, the best goalie in the playoffs and the main reason the Predators are on their sport’s biggest stage for the first time. Nashville was the better team from the opening face-off before Pittsburgh built a 3-0 lead thanks to Evgeni Malkin, Conor Sheary and Nick Bonino. Ryan Ellis scored the first goal by a Predator in a Stanley Cup Final 8:21 into the second on a powerplay.

 

Incredibly, Pittsburgh didn’t manage a shot on net in the second period, the first time it’s happened in a playoff game in franchise history — and the first such period by any team in a Final game since the NHL started tracking shots on goal in 1958. Colton Sissons beat Matt Murray 10:06 into the third before Frederick Gaudreau dramatically tied it just after a fruitless Pittsburgh power play. It was left to rookie Jake Guentzel (pictured below) to save the blushes for Pittsburgh with 3:17 left in regulation, then Bonino picked up an empty-netter at the death.

The Predators, who are trailing in a series for the first time this postseason, are trying to avoid losing back-to-back games for the first time before the best-of-seven set shifts to Nashville. “I thought our guys played great … we hate the score, we hate the result, but we’ll move forward,” Predators coach Peter Laviolette said after Game 1. There’s no obvious zig-zag position in terms of an outright result after such a confusing series opener but there’s a notable play on the total. Since the lockout, Stanley Cup final games following an ‘over’ result are 4-12-1 over/under (75 per cent to the under).

 

And three of those ‘over’ results came in the deciding game. The average combined score in those match-ups following an ‘over’ is just 4.3 goals. Going back to the 2011 Stanley Cup Final, playing the ‘under’ following an ‘over’ is on a perfect 7-0 streak. Taking out the 2010 finals, in which the Chicago Blackhawks and Philadelphia Flyers played ‘over’ the total in five of the six games, the ‘under’ is 1-11-1 in Cup final games following an ‘over’ since 2006. We’re on board with the ‘under’ here.

 

Most recent result: 0-0-1, -1.0 units

Nashville Predators @ Pittsburgh Penguins -5.5/total (one unit @ $1.74) LOSE (5-3)

 

 

• Selections are listed in three categories – 1) Suggested (likely bet but yet to be finalised); 2) Confirmed (locked in at the price listed); and 3) Leans (tips, but not recommended bets); all times quoted are Australian Eastern Time (AET); prices with thanks to Pinnacle (except where markets are not available), correct at time of publication. Bets void if listed goaltenders are changed. Results/comments on today’s games/races will follow in the next post.

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