State of Origin game 1 betting: Unfamiliar spot for NSW as road favourites

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Updated: May 31, 2017

Since Origin expanded to a three-match series 35 years ago the team that has won the opening game win the series on 27 occasions so it’s crucial that New South Wales, who start the 2017 State of Origin series equal in the market with Queensland, make a statement in tonight’s opening game at Suncorp Stadium in Brisbane.

 

State of Origin, Game 1: Queensland v New South Wales
Where: Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane, Qld
When: Wednesday, May 31, 8.15pm (AET)
Line: Queensland -0.5, O/U 33.5

Confirmed bet: -33.5/total (two units @ $1.90), Queensland WIN (one unit @ $1.97)

TIW says: Queensland have dominated State of Origin for over a decade with 10 series wins from the last 11 years including the past two series but are rated barely a coin-flip price to win the 2017 series opener in Brisbane tonight. Queensland have won 58 Origin games with New South Wales claiming 48 with three matches drawn. The Maroons have won 19 series to 12 and 10 of the past 11 including the past two. None of the past four series openers have topped 20 points while the last time a total surpassed 28 in a series opener was 2010. Storm fullback Billy Slater was a shock omission from the Maroons squad in favour of Darius Boyd, who has been in tremendous form in the no. 1 jersey for the Broncos.

In a massive blow, Johnathan Thurston has been ruled out, handing Broncos five-eighth Anthony Milford his Origin debut. Roosters enforcer Dylan Napa will also wear the maroon jersey for the first time and will ensure there are plenty fireworks at Suncorp. But for those absences, Queensland still have two of the most gifted players of their generation steering the ship. Everything Cameron Smith does screams of someone who was born with rugby league instincts while Cooper Cronk may be the most perfectly programmed halfback to ever wear the no. 7 jersey.

 

New South Wales won Game 3 of the series last year (a dead rubber) 18-14. The Blues have scored more than 18 points just once under Laurie Daley and are averaging a paltry 11.33 points per game during his reign. In contrast, Queensland have topped 18 points in three of their past five. The Blues have lost the last three at Suncorp by an average of more than 26 points with five of the past seven games at the ground being double digit wins to the Maroons. In terms of club form, NSW have seven from the top four clubs and two from the bottom four while Queensland have 11 from the top four teams and two from bottom four teams.

The much-maligned Mitchell Pearce has been recalled to the NSW side in the no.7 jersey and will have plenty of pressure on him after his well-documented struggles at this level of the game. Nathan Peats will make his Origin debut after Panthers hooker Peter Wallace was ruled out with a groin injury earlier in the week, while Sea Eagles workhorse Jake Trbojevic will make his debut off the bench. Roosters backrower Boyd Cordner (pictured above) replaces Paul Gallen as NSW captain and faces a tough initiation in Maroons heartland.

 

 

• Selections are listed in three categories – 1) Suggested (likely bet but yet to be finalised); 2) Confirmed (locked in at the price listed); and 3) Leans (tips, but not recommended bets); all times quoted are Australian Eastern Time (AET); best AU price available is quoted, correct at time of publication. Results/comments on this week’s games will follow in the next post.

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