AFL round 9 betting (May 19): Dogs hoping to end long drought at Cattery

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Updated: May 19, 2017

The AFL loves a close competition and they’ve sure got one this year, with the top nine sides separated by one win. Two of those, the Cats and the Dogs, kick-off round 9 at Simonds Stadium in slippery conditions tonight; overall record: 35-3-19, +27.22 units

AFL round 9: Geelong (5-3) v Western Bulldogs (5-3)
Where: Simonds Stadium, Geelong, Vic
When: Friday, May 19, 7.50pm (AET)
Lines: Bulldogs -2.5, O/U 148.5

Confirmed bets: Geelong WIN (one unit @ $1.95)

TIW says: It appears the rain will clear in time for the opening bounce of the first premiership season game at Simonds Stadium for 2017. It features a pair of 5-3 sides – Geelong and Western Bulldogs – but the momentum is squarely in the corner of the visitors tonight as they chase a first victory at this venue since 2003. Geelong has won the past 10 matches, 11 of the past 12 and 13 of 14 since 2008. The Bulldogs last won in round 21, 2009. An undermanned Bulldogs outfit turned in a gritty performance in Perth last Friday but ultimately fell eight points short of an upset win over the Eagles.

The Dogs swung the axe at selection with four omissions (including Tom Liberatore) to go with Matthew Boyd’s exclusion due to a shoulder injury. They regain Dale Morris (pictured below), Bobby Murphy, Travis Cloke, Mitch Wallis and Troy Dickson, but the jury’s out as to the line-up that currently represent Luke Beveridge’s best possible XXII. The presence of Cloke and Dickson will again test the Bulldogs’ inability to put a decent score on the board from an adequate amount of inside 50s, which will be further challenged by the greasy conditions. Last year, the Cats won at home by 25 points in round 16.

 

Geelong (along with Richmond and Adelaide) enjoyed a perfect start to the season but have lost three in a row after winning their first five. Alarmingly, the Cats’ levels of performance have declined with each loss. Those defeats have come against teams outside the eight, in which they’ve failed to break 100 while conceding 107-plus in all three. The Cats rank third in attack but their defence has fallen away to a lowly 13th. Chris Scott was furious with Geelong’s paltry 13 first-half tackles in the loss to Essendon last week, so expect a fired-up home side seeking redemption tonight on a ground where they’ve won six of their past seven.

They’ve lost Rhys Stanley and George Horlin-Smith but lose nothing with the return of Lachie Henderson and Scott Selwood. Geelong have covered nine of their past 11 at Simonds Stadium but just one of three as an outsider at the Cattery since 2012 and one of five at Simonds Stadium after conceding 110 points. The conditions should help the Dogs counter their status as the worst team after round eight for goalkicking (98.120 at 40.8 per cent conversion) ad it will be equally tough to score at the other end but we like the Cats to respond at home tonight.

 

Other round 9 games

Saturday, May 20: St Kilda v Sydney (1.45pm)
Saturday, May 20: GWS Giants v Richmond (4.35pm)
Saturday, May 20: Brisbane v Adelaide (7.25pm)
Saturday, May 20: Collingwood v Hawthorn (7.25pm)
Sunday, May 21: Essendon v West Coast (1.10pm)
Sunday, May 21: Melbourne v Nth Melbourne (3.20pm)
Sunday, May 21: Fremantle v Carlton (4.40pm)

Bye: Gold Coast, Port Adelaide

 

Round 8 results update: 4-0-1, +4.44 units

Three-unit bets: 9-1-1, +21.72 units
Two-unit bets: 9-2-7, +2.56 units
One-unit bets: 15-12, +2.94 units

Hawthorn v Brisbane +47.5 (three units @ $1.93) WIN (113-75)
GWS Giants 40+ v Collingwood (two units @ $2.25) LOSE (102-99)
Gold Coast v Port Adelaide -20.5 (two units @ $1.92) WIN (38-110)
Adelaide v Melbourne -206.5 (one unit @ $1.90) WIN (66-107)
Richmond v Fremantle -179.5 (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (70-72)

 

• Selections are listed in three categories – 1) Suggested (likely bet but yet to be finalised); 2) Confirmed (locked in at the price listed); and 3) Leans (tips, but not recommended bets); all times quoted are Australian Eastern Time (AET); prices with thanks to Ladbrokes (except where markets are not available), correct at time of publication. Results/comments on today’s games/races will follow in the next post.

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