AFL round 8 betting (May 13): Lions not without hope as Hawks struggle

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Updated: May 12, 2017

AFL action continues today with a big line-up of five games – our best of the day is at the top of the card where Hawthorn host the Brisbane Lions in a hardly-appetising battle of 16th and 18th at the University of Tasmania Stadium in Launceston where we sniff an upset; overall record: 31-3-18, +22.78 units

AFL round 8: Hawthorn (2-5) v Brisbane (1-6)
Where: University of Tasmania Stadium, Launceston, Tas
When: Saturday, May 13, 1.45pm (AET)
Lines: Hawthorn -47.5, O/U 202.5

Confirmed bet: Brisbane +47.5 (three units @ $1.93)

TIW says: We’re not sure that Hawthorn should be a 47.5-point favourite to defeat any team at the moment. Last week’s win over Melbourne was more a reflection on the Demons than the Hawks, and a week earlier they’d been handed their proverbial arse on a platter by St Kilda. They lose Grant Birchall while James Sicily has been dropped, and not even poor old Ty Vickery can get a game! Two weeks ago, Hawthorn lost their first game in Launceston since early in 2012 after winning the previous 19 games. The Lions have played seven times at the venue for just one win, in 2009.

Over the summer, former Hawks assistant Chris Fagan (pictured below) took his young Lions squad to northern Tassie for a training camp, and they were based at the University of Tasmania Stadium. Sure, the Lions are no world beaters – they are the lowest ranked team for marking the ball inside 50, averaging 7.9; they’re also ranked last for taking the ball inside 50 (Hawthorn are equal 15th in this category). But in a match where the Lions arguably hold the edge in terms of midfield quantity and both defenses stink, the Queenslanders will give plenty of cheek.

 

AFL round 8: St Kilda (4-3) v Carlton (3-4)
Where: Etihad Stadium, Melbourne, Vic
When: Saturday, May 13, 2.10pm (AET)
Lines: St Kilda -24.5, O/U 180.5

Lean: St Kilda -24.5

TIW says: We haven’t quite booked a seat on the Saints’ bandwagon. They were terrific last week but the Giants were physically shot in the final term so we can’t fully frank the expectations of this improving squad yet. The Blues have been the surprise packet of the season, winning three of seven including successive victories over Sydney and Collingwood. Importantly, they held the Swans and Magpies to just 19 goals combined. If they can clamp down on the St Kilda forwards, this could be closer than the market expects, but it’s a no-play for TIW.

 

AFL round 8: GWS Giants (5-2) v Collingwood (2-5)
Where: Spotless Stadium, Sydney Olympic Park, NSW
When: Saturday, May 13, 4.35pm (AET)
Lines: GWS Giants -32.5, O/U 182.5

Confirmed bet: GWS Giants 40+ (two units @ $2.25)

TIW says: With so much focus on the woes of Hawthorn, the Magpies have somewhat escaped the blowtorch but all hell could break loose after this afternoon’s clash in western Sydney. They’ve lost Adam Treloar to an ankle injury while Scott Pendlebury will be heading to Mascot the second his wife goes into labour. The return of Daniel Wells, Jarryd Blair and James Aish underlines the lack of depth available to Nathan Buckley, who won’t to see his side slip to 2-6 and seriously under the pump to reach the top eight. That’s the reason that this could get very ugly this afternoon.

The Giants will be well rested after last Friday’s shock loss to the Saints and regain Lachie Whitfield for a match-up that features one of the highest-scoring teams (GWS rank fourth with 15.3 goals per game), and one of the lowest (Collingwood are equal last kicking 10.7 goals per game). The Giants return to Spotless Stadium for just the second time this season and for first time since round two, when they thrashed Gold Coast by 102 points. GWS are yet to defeat Collingwood from five contests (three decided by 40 points or more) but they’ll put that stat right today.

 

AFL round 8: Essendon (3-4) v Geelong (5-2)
Where: MCG, Melbourne, Vic
When: Saturday, May 13, 7.25pm (AET)
Lines: Geelong -28.5, O/U 188.5

Lean: Essendon +28.5

TIW says: When it comes to unpredictability, these teams are setting the standard in 2017. The glass bottom fell out of the Cats’ boat on the Gold Coast last week in a 25-point setback to the Suns. That made it back-to-back defeats for Geelong after they somehow managed to lose to Collingwood a week earlier. The Bombers are clearly struggling to get the core of their returning players back to full fitness. In the past three weeks, Essendon have used 29 players but only 13 have played in all three games. Geelong have used 29 for the entire season to date.

 

AFL round 8: Adelaide (6-1) v Melbourne (3-4)
Where: Domain Stadium, Perth, WA
When: Saturday, May 13, 7.40pm (AET)
Lines: Adelaide -40.5, O/U 206.5

Confirmed bet: -206.5 (one unit @ $1.90)

TIW says: Melbourne ruined what would have been a perfect weekend for TIW in round 7, and we’re still steaming about the way they coughed up a very soft loss against Hawthorn. Heaven help their supporters who continue to endure hopelessly inconsistent performances from a list that should be producing much better. So a date with Adelaide, themselves coming off a humiliating loss to North Melbourne in Hobart last week, is far from ideal for former Crow Simon Goodwin and his Demon outfit. Jesse Hogan hasn’t made the trip to Adelaide so Sam Weideman will leading the spluttering Melbourne attack.

The line is a tough call but the total holds appeal despite the Crows’ potent offense. The under has hit in 11 of the 17 Melbourne games since 2012 when they were interstate outsiders of 30.5 or bigger and in 14 of the past 21 the Demons have played under lights. Three of the past four between these sides have also been low scoring affairs, with the past two at the Adelaide Oval going for 137 and 135 respectively. And the job will be made significantly easier if Adelaide can avoid coughing up 10 first quarter goals, as was the case at Blundstone Arena last Saturday!

 

Other round 7 games

Sunday, May 14: Richmond v Fremantle
Sunday, May 14: Gold Coast v Port Adelaide
Sunday, May 14: North Melbourne v Sydney

 

Round 8 results update: 2-0-0, +2.0 units

Three-unit bets: 8-1-1, +18.93 units
Two-unit bets: 8-2-6, +2.72 units
One-unit bets: 14-12, +1.13 units

West Coast Eagles (1-39) v Western Bulldogs (one unit @ $2.10) WIN (69-61)
West Coast Eagles v Western Bulldogs -168.5 (one unit @ $1.90) WIN (69-61)

 

• Selections are listed in three categories – 1) Suggested (likely bet but yet to be finalised); 2) Confirmed (locked in at the price listed); and 3) Leans (tips, but not recommended bets); all times quoted are Australian Eastern Time (AET); prices with thanks to Ladbrokes (except where markets are not available), correct at time of publication. Results/comments on today’s games/races will follow in the next post.

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