NHL playoffs betting (May 3): Senators march into New York holding a shock 2-0 lead

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Updated: May 2, 2017

Postseason action continues in the NHL this evening with the Ottawa Senators holding a 2-0 lead as their series heads to New York while the Predators take a 2-1 advantage into Game 4 of their Western Conference showdown against the St. Louis Blues; playoff record: 9-4-13, -1.78 units; overall record: 245-25-197, +55.4 units

Eastern Conference second round, game 3: Ottawa Senators @ New York Rangers (Ottawa lead 2-0)
Where: Madison Square Garden, New York, NY
When: Wednesday, May 3, 9am (AET)
Prices: Ottawa $2.40, New York $1.63

Confirmed bet: Ottawa WIN (one unit @ $2.50)

TIW says: The Ottawa Senators won at home in Games 1 and 2 and will try to take a 3-0 lead against the New York Rangers in Game 3 at Madison Square Garden tonight. Teams that take a 2-0 lead in a best-of-7 series have gone on to win the series 86.6 per cent of the time (309-48), but it could have all so different for the Rangers. New York were well on the way toward evening the series as it held a two-goal advantage with less than four minutes remaining in Game 2. But Jean-Gabriel Pageau took over, scoring three successive goals (including the winner at 2:54 of the second overtime) to complete a four-goal performance and move the Senators within two victories of the conference final.

 

Pageau (pictured above) became just the second player in playoff history to cap a four-goal performance with an overtime winner. The four-goal effort also was the first in the postseason since Game 4 of the 2010 Western Conference semifinals. The Rangers have fallen behind 2-0 in a playoff series seven times since 2006, all with Henrik Lundqvist in goal. They have come back to win the series once (2013 Eastern Conference Quarterfinals against the Washington Capitals). The Rangers must play off the emotion of their crowd. They did that well in Games 4 and 6 against the Montreal Canadiens in the first round and won each game. They did not in Game 3 and lost. We love the value that lies with the visitors here.

 

Western Conference second round, game 4: St. Louis Blues @ Nashville Predators (Nashville lead 2-1)
Where: Bridgestone Arena, Nashville, TN
When: Wednesday, May 3, 11.35am (AET)
Prices: St. Louis $2.40, Nashville $1.63

Confirmed bet: +5/total (one unit @ $2.02)

TIW says: It’s going to be a huge night in ‘Smashville’ with the Predators hosting Game 4 against the Blues in front of a sold out Bridgestone Arena crowd. The Predators are 3-0 at home so far in the playoffs, including a 3-1 win over the Blues in Game 3 while St. Louis will be hoping to avoid losing back-to-back games for the first time in the playoffs. The Predators defense have made a noticeable impact on the series offensively. P.K. Subban, Ryan Ellis, Roman Josi and Mattias Ekholm have combined for 11 points (four goals, seven assists) in the first three games of the series. Ellis is riding a six-game point streak. He has tallied in back-to-back games and has three goals in the postseason to go with five assists.

In addition, the Predators have had 13 different players who have scored goals in the playoffs. Center Colton Sissons has six points (two goals, four assists) in seven postseason games after having 10 points (eight goals, two assists) during the regular season. The Blues are expected to have some changes in their line-up after the Game 3 loss, with forwards Zach Sanford and Magnus Paajarvi each likely to play. If the Blues have any chance in this one they must get better in the faceoff circle, losing 24 of the 63 face-offs allowing the Predators to dominate the ice for much of the night. If that occurs again, we know the Preds are going to score so we’re going against the money on the ‘under’ here.

 

Yesterday’s result: 0-0-1, -1.0 units

Washington Capitals @ Pittsburgh Penguins +5.5/total (one unit @ $1.85) LOSE (3-2)

 

 

• Selections are listed in three categories – 1) Suggested (likely bet but yet to be finalised); 2) Confirmed (locked in at the price listed); and 3) Leans (tips, but not recommended bets); all times quoted are Australian Eastern Time (AET); prices with thanks to Pinnacle (except where markets are not available), correct at time of publication. Bets void if listed goaltenders are changed. Results/comments on today’s games/races will follow in the next post.

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