NBA playoffs betting (May 2): High scoring trend in second round openers to continue

Updated: May 1, 2017

The NBA Playoffs continue tonight with a pair of Conference quarterfinal openers – the Cavaliers will host the Raptors and the Spurs will welcome the Rockets, and TIW’s hoops team are playing on both; playoff record: 12-0-10, +4.3 units, overall record: 254-7-213, +48.54 units


Eastern Conference semifinals, game 1: Toronto Raptors @ Cleveland Cavaliers
Where: Quicken Loans Arena, Cleveland, OH
When: Tuesday, May 2, 9am (AET)
Line: Cleveland -6.5, O/U 208.5
Confirmed bet: +208.5 (one unit @ $1.95)

TIW says: The Cavaliers knocked out the Raptors in the Eastern Conference Finals in six games last season and start overwhelming favourites to repeat that result again in 2017. Cleveland pulled off a four-game sweep of Indiana even though the Cavaliers won those contests by a total of just 16 points. The most notable victory in that series came in Game 3 when the Cavaliers erased a 25-point half-time deficit to stun the Pacers, 119-114, while covering as two-point favourites. The Raptors rode a roller-coaster in their first round series against the Bucks, falling behind, 2-1 after three games.


However, Dwane Casey’s outfit rebounded with three successive wins to close out the series in six games, while limiting Milwaukee to 93 points or fewer in those victories. Toronto’s offense scored 83 points or less in their two losses to Milwaukee, and had inconsistent offensive efforts across the four wins (106, 87, 118 and 92 points). We’re following a solid trend in the opening game of second round playoff series here. The ‘over’ is 22-7 dating to 2010, including the 123-11 blowout of the Wizards by the Celtics yesterday. The ‘over’ is also 7-1 in the Cavs’ past eight games at home and 13-4 in their past 17 against Eastern Conference rivals. The ‘over’ is 14-5 in the Raptors’ past 19 when facing opponents with a winning percentage above .600.


Western Conference semifinals, game 1: Houston Rockets @ San Antonio Spurs
Where: AT&T Center, San Antonio, TX
When: Tuesday, May 2, 11.30am (AET)
Line: San Antonio -5.5, O/U 213
Confirmed bet: Houston +6 (one unit @ $1.95)

TIW says: Lone Star State bragging rights will again be on the line when the San Antonio Spurs and the Houston Rockets meet for Game 1 of their Western Conference semifinal playoff series at the AT&T Center tonight. This heated rivalry featured four meetings this season, with the Spurs winning the final three by a combined 10 points. Two of San Antonio’s victories in the series came in Houston, and three of the four games were decided by just two points. The second-seeded Spurs advanced out of the first round by outlasting the seventh-seeded Memphis Grizzlies in a bruising six-game series.

Meanwhile, the third-seeded Rockets captured their first-round series over the sixth-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder in five games, with the clinching game a 105-99 victory on Tuesday in Houston. San Antonio won the deciding Game 6 against Memphis 103-96 on Thursday despite being down by six points midway through the fourth quarter. MVP candidate Kawhi Leonard averaged 31 points in the series. The Rockets are 4-1 ATS in their past five when coming off three or more days’ rest and they are 7-3 in their past 10 road games against teams with a home winning record. San Antonio are 6-14 ATS in their past 20 following a straight up win and with the road team going 5-0 ATS in the past five match-ups between these teams.


Saturday’s results: 1-0-2, -1.04 units

Washington Wizards @ Atlanta Hawks -3 (one unit @ $1.95) LOSE (115-99)
Boston Celtics @ Chicago Bulls -203.5 (one unit @ $1.96) WIN (105-83)
Los Angeles Clippers @ Utah Jazz -5.5 (one unit @ $1.96) LOSE (98-93)



• Selections are listed in three categories – 1) Suggested (likely bet but yet to be finalised); 2) Confirmed (locked in at the price listed); and 3) Leans (tips, but not recommended bets); all times quoted are Australian Eastern Time (AET); prices with thanks to Pinnacle (except where markets are not available), correct at time of publication. Results/comments on today’s games/races will follow in the next post.

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