AFL betting (round 5 for April 25): Bombers, Magpies bring indifferent form to ANZAC Day blockbuster
The 2017 ANZAC Day clash might not have the expectations of recent...
A massive round of NRL action kicks-off with a Friday night double-header in Canberra (the Raiders host the Sea Eagles) and Sydney (Souths take on the Broncos at ANZ Stadium) before culminating with two games on ANZAC Day. James Potter from bigjimwins.com offers his selections for the opening games below; overall record: 22-0-19, +1.84 units
NRL round 8: Canberra Raiders (4-3) v Manly Warringah Sea Eagles (3-4)
Where: GIO Stadium, Canberra, ACT
When: Friday, April 21, 6pm (AET)
Line: Raiders -10.5, O/U 44
Confirmed bets: Raiders -10.5 (one unit @ $1.91), -44/total (one unit @ $1.90)
TIW says: Canberra, with Joey Leilua and Jordan Rapana (pictured below) in stellar form, have been in terrific form with three wins on the trot. That success has been built on some outstanding defence that has resulted them in conceding 12.17 points a game over that period. Raiders coach Ricky Stuart has named an unchanged side for the fixture but it’s unlikely the coach will only stick with 15 for the game this week after both Adam Clydsdale and Dunamis Lui failed to take the field against the Warriors. It was the first time since round 24, 2009 that a coach has fielded only 15 players.
Manly, conversely, have conceded 65 points in two home games over the past fortnight. Canberra have won three of the past four against the Sea Eagles by margins of 12 or greater. The Raiders have won three of their past four over Manly, while the Sea Eagles have won five of the past six in Canberra. We all thought Manly were horrible at the start of the season but they turned it around with three consecutive wins and pushed the Storm last week although they conceded more than 30 points to the Dragons and Melbourne. I think this will be a reasonably tight encounter with the Raiders doing enough to get the points.
NRL round 8: South Sydney Rabbitohs (3-4) v Brisbane Broncos (4-3)
Where: ANZ Stadium, Sydney Olympic Park, NSW
When: Friday, April 21, 7.50pm (AET)
Line: Broncos -9.5, O/U 38.5
Confirmed bet: Rabbitohs +9.5 (one unit @ $1.91), +38.5/total (one unit @ $1.90)
TIW says: The Brisbane Broncos are flying after securing their first back-to-back wins of the season, dispatching the highly-rated Sydney Roosters before prevailing late in a close one over the Gold Coast Titans. The Broncos have named Korbin Sims and Sam Thaiday in the starting pack after playing off the bench last week. The Broncos conceded more than 18 points last week for just the second time this year in their win against Gold Coast and rank fourth in defence. Brisbane have won three in a row against the Rabbitohs by margins of 20, 22 and 35 with the past eight all tallying more than 38 points.
The Rabbitohs are 11th after losing three of their past four matches. South Sydney were held scoreless in the second half against the Bulldogs in their Good Friday clash but will be boosted by the news that Sam Burgess will be available after he was cleared at the judiciary for a shoulder charge. Home underdogs of 4.5 or more in the first eight rounds of the season cover at a rate of more than 71 per cent. The Broncos are 0-5 ATS when a road favourite of 6.5 or more since 2014. Bunnies to get the job done in a shoot-out.
Other round 8 games
Parramatta Eels (3-4) v Penrith Panthers (2-5)
North Queensland Cowboys (4-3) v Newcastle Knights (1-6)
Cronulla Sutherland Sharks (5-2) v Gold Coast Titans (1-6)
Wests Tigers (2-5) v Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs (4-3)
Sydney Roosters (5-2) v St George Illawarra Dragons (6-1)
Melbourne Storm (6-1) v New Zealand Warriors (3-4)
Round 7 results update: 2-0-3, -1.3 units
Three-unit bets: 2-4, -6.51 units
Two-unit bets: 11-5, +10.14 units
One-unit bets: 9-10, -1.79 units
Manly Warringah Sea Eagles v Melbourne Storm -38.5/total (three units @ $1.90) LOSE (26-30)
St George Illawarra Dragons v North Queensland Cowboys +10 (two units @ $1.93) WIN (28-22)
Newcastle Knights v Sydney Roosters -12 (two units @ $1.92) WIN (6-24)
Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs v South Sydney Rabbitohs +38.5/total (one unit @ $1.90) LOSE (24-9)
Parramatta Eels v Wests Tigers +3.5 (one unit @ $1.92) LOSE (26-22)
• Selections are listed in three categories – 1) Suggested (likely bet but yet to be finalised); 2) Confirmed (locked in at the price listed); and 3) Leans (tips, but not recommended bets); all times quoted are Australian Eastern Time (AET); best AU price available is quoted, correct at time of publication. Results/comments on this week’s games will follow in the next post.