AFL betting (round 5 for April 21): Young Blues facing Power surge at Adelaide Oval

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Updated: April 20, 2017

Nine games over five days will culminate in the annual ANZAC Day game between Essendon and Collingwood at the MCG on Tuesday. Round 5 kicks-off in Adelaide with the Power hosting the Blues for Friday night football at the Adelaide Oval; overall record: 15-2-11, +9.48 units

AFL round 5: Port Adelaide (2-2) v Carlton (1-3)
Where: Adelaide Oval, Adelaide, SA
When: Friday, April 21, 7.50pm (AET)
Lines: Power -36.5, total 178.5
Confirmed bet: -178.5/total (one unit @ $1.90)

TIW says: As far as rebuilding processes go, Carlton seem to be on the right track. They’ve been competitive in all four games this season and even picked up a win over the hapless Bombers two weeks back but faded late against the Suns. Tonight, they journey interstate for the first time in 2017 to take on Port Adelaide. Experienced pair Matthew Kreuzer and Dale Thomas are “too sore” to take on the in-form Power, meaning coach Brendon Bolton (pictured below) again turning to youth.

Against Gold Coast last week, the Blues fielded nine players yet to have their 21st birthday. Against the Power that number could hit double figures. Off the back of strong VFL form, Cam Polson will become the sixth Blue to make an AFL debut this year. The 19-year-old follows Harrison Macreadie, Jarrod Pickett, Sam Petrevski-Seton (round 1), Tom Williamson (round 3) and Zac Fisher (round 4) as first-year players getting a guernsey. To underline the enthusiasm of these youngsters, the Blues have been one of the best tackling sides in 2017, ranked second (averaging 76 per game).

 

But the weight of numbers could catch up with the Blues tonight, especially with versatile big man Paddy Ryder returning for the Power from a one-game suspension. That’s the only change for Ken Hinkley’s side, who are virtually at full strength for tonight’s match-up. Port Adelaide matched it with the premiership favourite GWS for three quarters last week but were dominated in the final term after leading by four points at the last change. It’s two wins apiece since 2014, but Carlton has won five of the past eight contests including the past two.

There have been some close finishes too, with three of the past five decided by less than a goal. The line is a tricky proposition due to Carlton’s decent record against Port. Instead, we’re playing the total. Five of the past seven Port home games have finished under the quoted total along with 15 of their past 18 night matches against all opponents. Carlton have averaged just 66.9 points per game in interstate matches since 2012 and 11 of their past 15 outside Victoria have played ‘under’.

 

Other round 5 games

Western Bulldogs (3-1) v Brisbane Lions (1-3)
Gold Coast (2-2) v Adelaide (4-0)
Sydney (0-4) v GWS Giants (3-1)
Fremantle (2-2) v North Melbourne (0-4)
St Kilda (2-2) v Geelong (4-0)
Hawthorn (0-4) v West Coast (3-1)
Richmond (4-0) v Melbourne (2-2)
Essendon (2-2) v Collingwood (1-3)

 

Round 4 results update: 3-1-1, +4.38 units

Three-unit bets: 4-1, +7.86 units
Two-unit bets: 5-2-3, +3.2 units
One-unit bets: 6-7, -1.58 units

Hawthorn v Geelong -16.5 (three units @ $1.91) WIN (48-134)
GWS Giants v Port Adelaide -18.5 (three units @ $1.91) WIN (112-81)
Collingwood -5.5 v St Kilda (two units @ $1.91) LOSE (55-69)
Carlton v Gold Coast -190/total (two units @ $1.90) PUSH (82-108)
Melbourne v Fremantle +22.5 (one unit @ $1.92) WIN (104-106)

 

• Selections are listed in three categories – 1) Suggested (likely bet but yet to be finalised); 2) Confirmed (locked in at the price listed); and 3) Leans (tips, but not recommended bets); all times quoted are Australian Eastern Time (AET); prices with thanks to Ladbrokes (except where markets are not available), correct at time of publication. Results/comments on today’s games/races will follow in the next post.

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