Champions League betting: Goals assured as Monaco chase two-goal deficit

Updated: March 15, 2017

The four sides in action tonight tallied a remarkable 14 goals in their respective first leg match-ups and we’re expecting plenty of scoring once again as AS Monaco aim to overcome a two-goal deficit in tonight’s UEFA Champions League clash against Manchester City at the Stade Louis II; overall record: 42-5-32, +19.95 units



Game: AS Monaco (France) v Manchester City (England) – aggregate 3-5
Where: Stade Louis II, Monaco
When: Thursday, March 16, 6.45am (AEDT)
Prices: Monaco $2.70, Manchester City $2.50, DRAW $3.65
Confirmed bets: Monaco WIN (one unit @ $2.70), +3.5/total (two units @ $1.90); +4.5/total (one unit @ $3.10)

TIW says: After watching Barca wipe out a four-goal deficit in clinical fashion last week, Monaco should be filled with confidence as they need at least two goals to claim their round of 16 tie over Manchester City. Given the team from the principality have scored 123 goals in all competitions this season, the prices make complete sense. Monaco have come out on top in each of their three Champions League knockout ties with English clubs Manchester United in 1997-98, Chelsea in 2003-04 and Arsenal in 2014-15) but have lost six of their past eight Champions League knockout games (also W1, D1), with their only win in that time coming in London against Arsenal (3-1, February 2015). They have a strong home record in Europe this term and are unbeaten in five matches in the principality, including qualifiers against Fenerbahçe SK and Villarreal CF (W4 D1).


Monaco have won all four of their games since the first leg, scoring 12 goals (the last eight at home) since a 3-1 loss to Olympique Lyonnais on December 18. The Ligue 1 leaders are still in contention for four trophies this season. For City, manager Pep Guardiola, who takes charge of his 100th game in Europe on Wednesday, has no new injury concerns. Striker Gabriel Jesus (foot) and midfielder Ilkay Gundogan (knee) are the only senior absentees. Captain Vincent Kompany will hope to feature for only the second time since November. Manchester City have never lost to French opposition in European competition (W2, D2). Guardiola’s side have conceded only one goal in four matches since the first leg and kept their sixth successive away clean sheet as they defeated Middlesbrough FC 2-0 in the FA Cup quarter-finals on Saturday. Like the Barca v PSG match-up, this is an awesome betting situation with goals assured.


Game: Atlético Madrid (Spain) v Bayer 04 Leverkusen (Germany) – aggregate 4-2
Where: Vicente Calderón Stadium, Madrid, Spain
When: Thursday, March 16, 6.45am (AEDT)
Prices: Atlético $1.61, Leverkusen $5.50, DRAW $4.20
Confirmed bet: Atlético WIN (two units @ $1.61)

TIW says: Fernando Torres is set return for Atlético Madrid’s return bout with Bayer Leverkusen, two weeks after he was discharged from hospital with a head injury. The striker lost consciousness after a frightening challenge in a game with Deportivo La Coruna on March 2. Torres returned to full training on Monday and boss Diego Simeone confirmed he is available. Atlético won the last-16 first-leg tie with Bayer Leverkusen 4-2. Torres scored in that game, which puts Atlético in a strong position to reach the last eight for a fourth successive year. The former Liverpool forward was released from hospital only 24 hours after he was admitted having suffered no serious injuries but Kevin Gameiro is in doubt after missing Saturday’s 1-0 La Liga win at Granada with an abdominal injury. Captain Gabi and left-back Filipe Luis are suspended. Unlike many of the teams still in the competition, Diego Simeone’s side can afford to concentrate on the Champions League, as they look to reach the final for the third time in four seasons.

Currently fourth in La Liga, qualification for next season’s Champions League seems likely, but they are too far off the pace to compete for the title. Having been eliminated from the Copa del Rey, the Champions League is their only realistic chance of silverware. Bayer Leverkusen named Tayfun Korkut as their new manager following the departure of Roger Schmidt, who was sacked after the German club’s first-leg defeat to Atlético was followed by a 6-2 loss at Borussia Dortmund. Benjamin Henrichs and midfielder Hakan Calhanoglu are suspended while Toprak, Jonathan Tah, Stefan Kiessling and captain Lars Bender are out injured. Leverkusen will also be without 17-year-old midfielder Kai Havertz, who has “important exams at school”, the Bundesliga side announced through their Twitter account. This should be a comfortable assignment for the hosts.


Yesterday’s results: 2-0-0, +2.05 units

Leicester City DNB v Sevilla FC (one unit @ $2.25) WIN (2-0)
Juventus FC WIN v FC Porto (one unit @ $1.80) WIN (1-0)



• Selections are listed in three categories – 1) Suggested (likely bet but yet to be finalised); 2) Confirmed (locked in at the price listed); and 3) Leans (tips, but not recommended bets); all times quoted are Australian Eastern Daylight Time (AEDT); prices with thanks to Bet365 (except where markets are not available), correct at time of publication. Results/comments on today’s games/races will follow in the next post.

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