EPL betting: Must-win spot for Gunners but Blues to continue recent dominance

Updated: February 4, 2017

17TIWEPLlogoAfter a full midweek book of games, EPL action resumes with eight match-ups scheduled for today – the clear highlight is the battle of Chelsea and Arsenal at Stamford Bridge where the Blues represent outstanding value; overall record: 30-2-22, +22.62 units


Game: Chelsea (18-2-3, 56 pts) v Arsenal (14-5-4, 47 pts)
Where: Stamford Bridge, London
When: Saturday, February 4, 11.30pm (AEDT)
Prices: Chelsea $2.00, Arsenal $3.30, DRAW $3.30

Confirmed bet: Chelsea WIN (two units @ $2.00)

TIW says: A Chelsea win here could spell the end of Arsenal’s title challenge. When the Gunners thumped the Blues 3-0 on September 24, they were three points ahead of their rivals after six games. Defeat here will leave Arsenal 12 points behind the Blues after the subsequent 18 matches. That loss was their first in 10 Premier League meetings to Arsenal (W6, D3). The Gunners have lost their last four games at Stamford Bridge, conceding 12 goals and scoring just one. The Blues have won 13 of their 14 home matches under Antonio Conte in all competitions, including their past 10. Arsenal have lost three of their past eight league games – that’s as many defeats as they suffered in their previous 30 top-flight matches.


Game: Southampton (7-6-10, 27 pts) v West Ham United (8-4-11, 28 pts)
Where: St Mary’s Stadium, Southampton
When: Sunday, January 22, 2am (AEDT)
Prices: Southampton $1.83, West Ham $4.50, DRAW $3.75

Confirmed bet: West Ham +1/hcp (one unit @ $1.95)

TIW says: Southampton slumped to their fifth defeat in six games as they were beaten 2-1 at Swansea to drop to 12th and a point behind today’s opponent West Ham as they begin life without the recently-departed Dimitri Payet. The Hammers had won two on the trot prior to the 4-0 defeat to Manchester City, netting six in the process, while they’ve lost only one of their past five on the road, managing draws at Anfield and Old Trafford. The Saints have won three of their past five at home but with Jose Fonte joining the Hammers and Virgil van Dijk out injured, the Saints have a makeshift pairing at the heart of the defence that have conceded just 11 so far this season.


Game: Everton (10-7-6, 37 pts) v Sunderland (4-4-15, 16 pts)
Where: Goodison Park, Liverpool
When: Sunday, January 22, 2am (AEDT)
Prices: Everton $1.72, Bournemouth $5.50, DRAW $3.60

Confirmed bet: Everton -1/hcp (one unit @ $2.70)

TIW says: Despite a disappointing FA Cup exit aside, 2017 has started in promising fashion for Everton with three wins (including a thrashing of Manchester City), one draw and only one goal conceded. Everton’s tally of 22 points at home this season is only one shy of their final total at Goodison in 2015-16. Their only league defeat in the past 14 home matches was against Liverpool on December 19 (W8, D5). Bournemouth have the fourth worst defence in the division and have shipped 28 in their past 12 games. The Cherries have conceded exactly three goals in four of their past five on the road, including in a 3-1 defeat at Hull in their most recent road game. They’ve lost seven of their 11 away matches this term.


Game: Tottenham Hotspur (13-8-2, 47 pts) v Middlesbrough (4-9-10, 21 pts)
Where: White Hart Lane, London
When: Sunday, January 22, 4.30am (AEDT)
Prices: Tottenham $1.30, Middlesbrough $12, DRAW $5.50

Confirmed bet: Tottenham/to nil (one unit @ $1.85)

TIW says: Tottenham gathered some momentum in the title race last month after beating Chelsea and West Brom at White Hart Lane, but draws with Manchester City and struggling Sunderland have taken the air out of their sails. They head into today’s fixture nine points behind Chelsea with increasingly little room for error. Spurs have won six successive home matches in the league and could go 12 top-flight games unbeaten at home for the first time in five years. They’ve won 25 of their past 27 league games against promoted sides, drawing the other two. Their last defeat in this spot came against QPR in April 2012. Middlesbrough are winless in eight trips to White Hart Lane in all competitions (D3, L5). They’ve won only one of their past nine league matches (D3, L5).


Today’s other games

Crystal Palace v Sunderland
Hull City v Liverpool
Watford v Burnley
West Bromwich Albion v Stoke City


Most recent results: 3-0-0, +5.3 units

Stoke City +1/hcp v Manchester United (one unit @ $2.30) WIN (1-1)
West Bromwich Albion -1/hcp v Sunderland (one unit @ $2.70) WIN (2-0)
Manchester City v Tottenham Hotspur DRAW (one unit @ $3.30) WIN (2-2)



• Selections are listed in three categories – 1) Suggested (likely bet but yet to be finalised); 2) Confirmed (locked in at the price listed); and 3) Leans (tips, but not recommended bets); all times quoted are Australian Eastern Daylight Time (AEDT); prices with thanks to Bet365 (except where markets are not available), correct at time of publication. Results/comments on today’s games/races will follow in the next post.

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