Super Bowl LI betting blog: All you need to know ahead Patriots-Falcons decider

Updated: January 30, 2017

Over the next week in the lead-up to Super Bowl LI (or Super Bowl 51 for us Roman numeral illiterates), we’ll be looking at the major stories and betting news ahead of the battle of the New England Patriots and Atlanta Falcons at NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas, next Monday AEDT). A quick shout-out to our NFL expert James Potter for his superb performance this season. On turnover of 381 units (seven pushes), ‘Big Jim’ returned a profit of 92.13 units for a return on investment of 24.6 per cent. These are numbers that would make most Vegas touts shudder!


*** LATEST BETTING: New England -3, O/U 58.5 (as at noon, Friday, February 1 (AEDT), CHECK OUT JAMES POTTER’S PREVIEW HERE ***


Falcons ride wave of public support into Houston

Among football fans nationwide, 53% are rooting for the Falcons to win on Sunday, compared to only 27% who are pulling for the Patriots. Republicans (58/23), Democrats (54/27), and independents (47/31) all give their support to the Falcons in pretty similar numbers (more here).


Oops – Shanahan’s playbook goes walkabout!

After the Super Bowl LI Opening Night Kyle Shanahan, could not find his backpack after the session, which is said to have contained the Falcon’s plans for SB LI. According to USA Today, forcing the Falcons offensive coordinator to scour the makeshift carpeted floor at Minute Maid Park like an amateur detective (more here).


Latest action from Vegas

Super Bowl action continues to flow through Las Vegas sports books at an equal pace on both the Patriots and Falcons which has the numbers on the board at a standstill with the majority still showing -3 and 59. “I want to get off 3 if I can, but if it doesn’t make sense then there’s no reason for us to go,” Jay Rood, VP of race and sports for MGM Resorts said (more here).


The Super Bowl LI match-up

New England Patriots – regular season record: 16-2 (home 8-2, away 8-0, ATS 15-3, O/U 8-10)
Atlanta Falcons – regular season record: 13-5 (home 7-3, away 6-2, ATS 12-6, O/U 15-2-1)

Head-to-head: The Patriots are 7-6 all-time against the Falcons. Since 2001, the Patriots have won all four meetings with Tom Brady at the helm by an average of 10 points. However, this is the first match-up between these sides since August 29, 2013.

Super Bowl history – New England Patriots: Ninth appearance, record 4-4, winners in 2002, 2004-05, 2015
Super Bowl history – Atlanta Falcons: Second appearance, record 0-1, runners-up in 1999

QB – Tom Brady (New England Patriots), 17th season, age 39, 2016 stats – 432 attempts, 291 completed, completion percentage 67.4%, 3554 yards, 28 TDs, 2 INTs, 5 fumbles, QB rating 112.2. This will be Brady’s seventh Super Bowl appearance, the most by any player at any position in NFL history. After missing the first four games of the season, he set an NFL record for best TD-INT ratio in a single season (28-2).
QB – Matt Ryan (Atlanta Falcons), 9th season, age 31, 2016 stats – 534 attempts, 373 completed, completion percentage 69.9%, 4944 yards, 38 TDs, 7 INTs, 4 fumbles, QB rating 117.1. The favourite to win the league’s MVP award, the quarterback known as “Matty Ice” set a career-highs in yards (4944) and touchdowns (38) this season. His offense has scored on the first drive of their past eight games.


Results update: 1-0-3, -4.05 units

Three-unit bets: 44-1-23, +57.15 units
Two-unit bets: 87-2-68, +30.22 units
One-unit bets: 84-4-77, +3.56 units
Overall record: 210-7-164, +92.13 units

Green Bay Packers +6 @ Atlanta Falcons (two units @ $1.93) LOSE (21-44)
Green Bay Packers @ Atlanta Falcons -60 (one unit @ $1.98) LOSE (21-44)
Pittsburgh Steelers @ New England Patriots -51 (three units @ $1.91) LOSE (17-36)
Pittsburgh Steelers @ New England Patriots -6 (one unit @ $1.95) WIN (17-36)



• Selections are listed in three categories – 1) Suggested (likely bet but yet to be finalised); 2) Confirmed (locked in at the price listed); and 3) Leans (tips, but not recommended bets); all times quoted are Australian Eastern Daylight Time (AEDT); prices with thanks to Bet365 (except where markets are not available), correct at time of publication. Results/comments on today’s games/races will follow in the next post.

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