PGA Tour betting: Crooked Stick a straight out big hitter’s dream

Updated: September 21, 2016


PGA Tour featured betting preview: BMW Championship; Crooked Stick Golf Club; par 72 (7567 yards); Carmel, IN, September 9-12 (AET) – selections by Will Chen


The field is down to 70 in the race for the FedExCup title and the cream is definitely rising to the top. Rory McIlroy’s victory in last week’s Deutsche Bank Championship rocketed him into the top five, which comprises Patrick Reed (3975), Jason Day (3409), Dustin Johnson (3189), McIlroy (3115) and Adam Scott (3063). For good measure, Jordan Spieth is sixth (2451). The third of the four FedExCup playoff events, the name of this tournament may be new (dating back to 2007), but the history of this event dates back to the 19th century. The Western Open was first played in 1899.



The Western Golf Association (WGA) ran the Western Open throughout its entire history (1899-2006), and continue to run the tournament under its new title. Four different courses have hosted the eight editions of this tournament, with Crooked Stick selected as venue for the second time in five years. An ultra-elite club with just 230 members, Crooked Stick (pictured above) is situated just north of Indianapolis. Built in 1964 and designed by Pete and Alice Dye, Crooked Stick hosted the 1991 PGA Championship (won by John Daly) while McIlroy won the previous BMW Championship played here in 2012.

At almost 7600 yards, Crooked Stick is a big hitter’s dream. Four years ago, wet conditions helped generate very low scoring with McIlroy’s winning score -20. It could be a similar story this year with rain currently falling and forecast to continue into the weekend. From a statistical perspective, Driving Distance and Par 5 Scoring are the ones to consider. Referencing other Dye-designed layouts is also valuable. TPC Sawgrass may not be the best comparison but TPC Louisiana, Whistling Straits and Kiawah Island tend to be more susceptible to attack from the tee.



McIlroy won at Kiawah Island months before his 2012 victory and it’s notable that Daly finished 18th there, many years after he’d ceased being a contender on the PGA Tour. Given the top heavy scoring at this point of the FedExCup and the fact that the fields are slashed after each event, it’s not surprising that multiple winners have emerged. In past nine FedEx Cup playoff series, there have been six occasions where a player has won two of the four events. Most recently, Jason Day (pictured above) won this title, two weeks after winning The Barclays last year.



Confirmed bets (card finalised, E/W = top 5)

Our strategy is a little different this week. With the reduced (and, in terms of quality, top heavy), field, it’s a case of throwing darts in the placings markets so we’re going straight out on the players below. We’re comfortable swerving McIlroy in this spot but will be very surprised if the winner doesn’t come from the next four in the market.

Jason Day WIN-E/W (one unit @ $8.50)
Dustin Johnson WIN-E/W (one unit @ $9.50)
Jordan Spieth WIN-E/W (one unit @ $16)
Adam Scott WIN-E/W (one unit @ $16)
Jimmy Walker WIN-E/W (one unit @ $36)
Bubba Watson WIN-E/W (one unit @ $41)


Most recent results (Deutsche Bank Championship): 2-0-6, +1.63 units; overall record: 56-3-188, +111.68 units

Jason Day WIN-E/W (one unit @ $7.50) LOSE (T15)
Jordan Spieth WIN-E/W (one unit @ $13.00) LOSE (T21)
Patrick Reed WIN-E/W (one unit @ $26.50) WIN (T5)
Brandt Snedeker top 6 (one unit @ $8.00) LOSE (T46)
Charley Hoffman top 10 (one unit @ $6.00) LOSE (CUT)
Gary Woodland top 10 (one unit @ $6.00) LOSE (T15)
Steve Stricker top 25 (one unit @ $3.00) WIN (T24)
Sean O’Hair top 25 (one unit @ $3.25) LOSE (T53)

• Selections are listed in three categories – 1) Suggested (likely bet but yet to be finalised); 2) Confirmed (locked in at the price listed); and 3) Leans (tips, but not recommended bets); all times quoted are Australian Eastern Time (AET); prices with thanks to Sportsbet (except where markets are not available), correct at time of publication. Results/comments on today’s games/races will follow in the next post.

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