PGA Tour betting: Deutsche Bank the latest stop for FedExCup playoffs

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Updated: September 1, 2016

16TIWgolfAug26b-barclaysThe start of The Barclays last week also marked the first event of the FedExCup playoffs for 2016. The playoffs feature a progressive cut, continuing with the Deutsche Bank Championship in Boston this week (120 down to 100 players) and the BMW Championship in Chicago (70 players). A reset takes place, seeding the top 30 players for the culminating Tour Championship in Atlanta, where the FedExCup Champion is crowned.

16TIWgolfsep03a-deutschePGA Tour featured betting preview: Deutsche Bank Championship; TPC Boston; par 71 (7468 yards); Norton, MA, September 2-5 (AET) – selections by Will Chen

Will Chen’s results from last week’s opening event of the FedExCup playoffs, The Barclays, represent our single best result in the history of The Inside Word. From eight units invested (Henrik Stenson withdrew before the start of the tournament), Will returned a staggering profit of 55.25 units – that’s almost 700 per cent. The bulk of that came after Patrick Reed withstood a fierce challenge to take out the event while Emiliano Grillo tie for second was good for 13 units alone after he started the tournament priced north of 300-1. Let’s keep it rolling as the FedExCup playoffs head to Boston for the Deutsche Bank Championship. Reed heads the FedExCup playoff standings on 3575 points (ahead of Jason Day, Dustin Johnson, Adam Scott and Jordan Spieth) but with 2000 points available to the winner, the race is far from over.

 

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Punters should take note that this tournament finishes on Monday (local time) to make the most of the Labour Day long weekend. The Deutsche Bank is a reasonably recent addition to the PGA Tour, with Adam Scott talking out the inaugural title in 2003. Vijay Singh (2004, 2008) is the only multiple winner. TPC Boston (pictured above) is highly regarded by the players, who’ve generally shot the lights out here. Located about 25 miles from Boston, this course was designed by Arnold Palmer and opened in 2002. Already, Gil Hanse and Brad Faxon have tinkered with the layout, reducing the length of the course by approximately 200 yards. Phil Mickelson, for one, is a big fan of this track: “I think it’s one of the best courses we play on TOUR.” Rickie Fowler won last year’s event with a score of -15.

 

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Fowler’s stats mirrored those of winners over the previous decade, revealing that Driving Distance and Driving Accuracy aren’t critical here. It’s play on and around the greens that will be the ticket to victory at TPC Boston. Fowler (pictured above) ranked fifth for Putting Average in 2015, becoming the ninth winner over the past decade to rank inside the best seven. He also ranked best for Scrambling, sinking 14 putts of three metres or longer. By this end of the tour, it’s the form players who are making their mark with those near the head of the market accounting for 10 of the past 13 victories. It’s also worth noting that in five of the previous eight FedEx Cup series, one player has won two of the four events. Vijay Singh doubled-up here after winning The Barclays in 2008, so Reed wouldn’t be setting a precedent should he go back-to-back.

 

 

Confirmed bets (card finalised, E/W = top 5)

Jason Day has been the best player on the TOUR this season and it’s really not even close. Heading into Friday’s tournament, Day has won three tournaments since January 7 and heads to TPC Boston having finished inside the top-10 in nine of his past 13 tournaments. He is a guy that is consistently at the top of the leaderboard and that makes him excellent value here. He has never won the Deutsche Bank Championship and could quite easily tick that box over coming days.

Jason Day WIN-E/W (one unit @ $7.50)
Jordan Spieth WIN-E/W (one unit @ $13.00)
Patrick Reed WIN-E/W (one unit @ $26.50)
Brandt Snedeker top 6 (one unit @ $8.00)
Charley Hoffman top 10 (one unit @ $6.00)
Gary Woodland top 10 (one unit @ $6.00)
Steve Stricker top 25 (one unit @ $3.00)
Sean O’Hair top 25 (one unit @ $3.25)

 

Most recent results (Wyndham Championship): 6-0-2, +55.25 units; overall record: 54-3-182, +110.05 units

Jason Day WIN-E/W (one unit @ $8.00) WIN (T4)
Henrik Stenson WIN-E/W (one unit @ $9.00) WITHDREW
Patrick Reed WIN-E/W (one unit @ $29.00) WIN (1st)
Matt Kuchar WIN-E/W (one unit @ $34.00) LOSE (T64)
Brandt Snedeker WIN-E/W (one unit @ $36.00) LOSE (T48)
Ryan Moore top 10 (one unit @ $7.50) WIN (T7)
Emiliano Grillo top 10 (one unit @ $8.00) WIN (T2)
Jhonattan Vegas top 25 (one unit @ $5.00) WIN (T22)
Sung-hoon Kang top 25 (one unit @ $13.00) WIN (T8)

• Selections are listed in three categories – 1) Suggested (likely bet but yet to be finalised); 2) Confirmed (locked in at the price listed); and 3) Leans (tips, but not recommended bets); all times quoted are Australian Eastern Time (AET); prices with thanks to Sportsbet (except where markets are not available), correct at time of publication. Results/comments on today’s games/races will follow in the next post.

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