Euro 2016 betting: Spain to continue recent dominance of Italy

Updated: June 27, 2016

Today’s Euro 2016 round of 16 betting preview: Italy v Spain; Stade de France, Saint-Denis, France; Tuesday, June 28, 2am



Hosts France, Belgium, Germany, Wales, Croatia and Poland will fill six of the eight quarter-final spots with the final two positions to be decided tonight in Paris and Nice. That list won’t comprise both Spain and Italy as the continental giants clash at the Stade de France for just the sixth time in the Euro finals but the fourth time since 2008. Prior to that point, the Spanish regarded the Azzurri as their bogey side but now the boot is on the other foot. Italy’s last competitive win against Spain was a 2-1 victory in the quarter-finals of the 1994 World Cup.


Spain celebrate their 4-0 victory over tonight's opponent Italy in the Euro 2012 final

Spain celebrate their 4-0 victory over tonight’s opponent Italy in the Euro 2012 final

Defeat to the Republic of Ireland was the Azzurri’s first defeat in 13 competitive games under Antonio Conte (W9, D3). They have used more players (22) than any other side in the group stage, including all 20 outfield squad members. Only Leonardo Bonucci and Andrea Barzagli have started all three games. Spain have named the same starting line-up in all three games so far. The Spanish have lost three of their last six games at the World Cup and European Championship (as many defeats as in their previous 31 major tournament games) but we’re expecting them to prevail here.


Today’s Euro 2016 round of 16 betting preview: England v Iceland; Allianz Riviera, Nice, France; Tuesday, June 28, 5am

It’s been a tumultuous week in the United Kingdom, and sentiment will sink even lower if England fails to progress at the expense of minnow Iceland tonight. Paraguay (1986), Belgium and Cameroon (1990), Spain (1996) Denmark (2002) and Ecuador (2006) are the only countries England have beaten in a knockout game at a major tournament since winning the World Cup in 1966. England may have completed 1315 passes to Iceland’s 485, and have had 64 shots to their 23, yet the Nordic nation outscored them and garnered more points during the group stage.



Heavily criticised after making six changes for the match with Slovakia, England manager Roy Hodgson is expected to restore captain Wayne Rooney, and the Tottenham quartet of Dele Alli, Harry Kane (pictured above with Rooney), Danny Rose and Kyle Walker.  Daniel Sturridge could play on the right side of attack with Kane in the centre and Adam Lallana on the left. Iceland were the only team, along with Spain, to start with the same line-up in all three of their group games. Alfred Finnbogason will be back on the bench after missing the win against Austria through suspension. Iceland are a well-drilled side and have been backed by an impressive army of supporters.



Confirmed betting (card finalised)

Italy v Spain WIN (one unit @ $2.20) – Antonio Candreva is out with a thigh problem and his place at right wing-back is expected to go to Roma’s Alessandro Florenzi. It’s a huge loss for the Azzurri as Candreva is a pivotal piece in the counter-attacking puzzle they’ll need to solve to keep apace with the Spanish.

England v Iceland +1 (one unit @ $2.50) – Iceland are capable of defeating England, but England have a better chance of defeating England! Iceland will play without fear or favour against a side that has underachieved on the international stage. We don’t envisage a blowout in favour of the Three Lions against such opposition.


Yesterday’s results: 1-1, +0.25 units; overall finals record: 18-11, +19.82 units; qualifying record: 34-10-26, +13.40 units

Hungary v Belgium BTS (one unit @ $2.50) LOSE (0-4)
Germany -1hcp v Slovakia (one unit @ $2.25) WIN (3-0)

• Selections are listed in three categories – 1) Suggested (likely bet but yet to be finalised); 2) Confirmed (locked in at the price listed); and 3) Leans (tips, but not recommended bets); all times quoted are Australian Eastern Time (AET); prices with thanks to Bet365 (except where markets are not available), correct at time of publication. Results/comments on today’s games/races will follow in the next post.

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