Euro 2016 betting: Poland to deliver final killer blow to Ukraine

Updated: June 21, 2016

Today’s featured Group C betting preview: Ukraine v Poland, Stade Vélodrome, Marseille, France; Wednesday, June 22, 2am



Group C: Germany (4pts) need a point against Northern Ireland (3pts) to guarantee qualification. Top spot is very much up for grabs, and if Germany and Poland (4pts) both win, it will come down to goal difference. If Germany draw their game, they will finish top unless Poland beat Ukraine (0pts). With a defeat, Germany would drop to third if Poland get a point against Ukraine. The same tiebreak scenarios apply if Poland and Germany finish level on points for second and third, with Northern Ireland top. Ukraine have been eliminated from the tournament.

Group D: Spain (6pts) have qualified for the round of 16 and need a point against Croatia to take top spot. In contrast, Croatia (4pts) need a point against Spain to guarantee second place, but must beat Vicente Del Bosque’s team to finish first. Croatia are guaranteed a top-three finish, and would likely go through in third place with four points. Czech Republic (1pt) must defeat Turkey, and also hope Croatia lose to Spain, to be in the top two. Turkey (0pts) have to beat Czech Republic and hope three points is enough for a place in the knockout rounds.



The final standings in Groups C and D will be decided tonight (scenarios outlined above) in a tricky landscape for punters to negotiate. For our best of the night, we’re heading south to Marseille for the clash between Ukraine and Poland. The former will be heading home after this game while the latter could finish the day at the head of the Group C table ahead of reigning world champions Germany. As co-hosts of Euro 2012, both Poland and Ukraine were sent packing after managing just one win between them in the group stages.

Top scorers in qualifying with 33 goals, Poland have managed just one so far, and are without a shot on target in their past 98 minutes of action. It’s fair to say star striker Robert Lewandowski (pictured above) has yet to make his mark on this tournament. He scored in the 17th minute of his first game at a European Championship finals against Greece in 2012. However, since then, he’s failed to find the net or deliver an assist in the competition in 433 minutes. Poland are aiming to reach the knockout stages of the Euros for the first time in their history, after failing in 2008 and 2012.



As Ukraine have already been eliminated, coach Mykhalo Fomenko may be tempted to make wholesale changes to his team. A pair of 2-0 defeats against Germany and Northern Ireland have strangled the dream in double-quick time, and the side’s key players have totally failed to perform. Sevilla winger Yevhen Konoplyanka had a good spell against Germany but has otherwise failed to impress, while his fellow winger Andriy Yarmolenko has served up two insipid displays. There was plenty of hype about 20-year-old Shakhtar Donetsk midfielder Viktor Kovalenko (pictured above), but he appears to have been overawed by the occasion.

Goalkeeper Andriy Pyatov could be replaced by Denys Boyko after two unconvincing displays against Germany and Northern Ireland. Infighting between two of their best players dominated the build-up to the tournament and they have looked far from a happy camp. Since winning their first-ever game at a European Championship finals (2-1 v Sweden in 2012) they have lost four successive matches in the tournament without scoring a single goal. Andriy Shevchenko, now part of the coaching staff, is the only player to have scored for Ukraine at a Euros (two goals in 2012). Ukraine and Poland have met seven times previously, with Ukraine winning three games to Poland’s two and two draws.


Today’s other games

Group C: Northern Ireland v Germany, Parc des Princes, Paris, France; Wednesday, June 22, 2am
Group D: Czech Republic v Turkey, Stade Félix Bollaert-Delelis, Lens, France, France; Wednesday, June 22, 5am
Group D: Croatia v Spain, Stade Matmut Atlantique, Bordeaux, France; Wednesday, June 22, 5am



Confirmed betting (card finalised)

Ukraine v Poland WIN (two units @ $1.90)
Northern Ireland +2hcp v Germany (one unit @ $1.83)


Yesterday’s result: 0-1, -1.0 units; overall finals record: 12-9, +14.59 units; qualifying record: 34-10-26, +13.40 units

Russia v Wales -1.5 goals total (one unit @ $2.47) LOSE (0-3)

• Selections are listed in three categories – 1) Suggested (likely bet but yet to be finalised); 2) Confirmed (locked in at the price listed); and 3) Leans (tips, but not recommended bets); all times quoted are Australian Eastern Time (AET); prices with thanks to Bet365 (except where markets are not available), correct at time of publication. Results/comments on today’s games/races will follow in the next post.

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