TIW blog (for September 24-30)

Updated: September 23, 2015


Inspired by the Last At Cannington, the blog that was the precursor to The Inside Word, the TIW blog features breaking news, betting whispers, market updates, late mail & other items that have piqued our interest – we might even find a funny cat video or two!


Riders in must-win spot to keep playoff hopes alive (September 27)

Though not officially eliminated from playoff contention, the Saskatchewan Roughriders face a steep climb back as no club has ever made the playoffs after a 1-11 start. A win by the Montreal Alouettes would ensure that the best the Riders could manage is a tie at six wins so it’s a must win this week. We expect that they’ll do so –Jonathan Crompton returned under centre last week and led Montreal to victory over the Bombers. But wasn’t all roses for Crompton. Along with 181 yards and two touchdowns he also threw a pair of interceptions. It can take some time for a quarterback to get back on the same page as his receivers and this could open the door for Saskatchewan on their home field. Confirmed bet: Montreal Alouettes @ Saskatchewan Roughriders +2 (one unit @ $1.91).


Australia’s second stringers to turn on a show (September 27)

Australia started their World Cup campaign with a workman-like 28-13 win over Fiji but failed to secure the try bonus-point. Despite being third favourites for the tournament, the Wallabies face a tough time to qualify for the last eight with clashes against the hosts England and Wales ahead. Coach Michael Cheika has made 14 changes to the side that defeated Fiji after declaring he wanted to give his whole squad a run in the first two matches. Uruguay acquitted themselves well in their first match and briefly had the lead before Wales took control and won 54-9. A similar scoreline is likely here but we expect the Aussies to keep the foot to the floor. Confirmed bet: Australia -58.5 v Uruguay (one unit @ $1.91).


Mercury to square West Finals series against Lynx (September 27)

The shorter format of the WNBA Finals means the Phoenix Mercury will have to solve their shooting and rebounding woes from Game 1 of the Western Conference finals in Minnesota if they hope to defeat the Lynx. The best-of-three series shifts to Phoenix today with the Minnesota Lynx owning the upper hand thanks to Thursday’s 67-60 win. The Lynx held the Mercury to 25 per cent shooting in the second half and 32.8 per cent overall while finishing with a 44-30 rebounding advantage. Minnesota are one win away from a fourth WNBA Finals appearance in five seasons. Phoenix ended the Lynx’s run as conference champions by winning the 2014 West finals in three games, avenging a Minnesota sweep the previous year. We like the Mercury to rebound at home here. Confirmed bet: Minnesota Lynx @ Phoenix Mercury -2.5 (one unit @ $1.94).


Ottawa hold the edge in pivotal East Division battle (September 27)

The race for top spot in the CFL’s East Division is about to get more interesting as the Ottawa RedBlacks and Toronto Argonauts face off tonight at TD Place. The match is the first of a critical two-game set that is sure to shake things up in the division. The RedBlacks have momentum on of their side this week as they are riding a three-game winning streak and will be playing in front of a sold out home crowd in Ottawa. They are also coming off of a thrilling week 13 victory in Saskatchewan as Chris Milo kicked a game winning field goal with six seconds left on the clock to lift Ottawa to a 30-27 win. The Argos are coming off of a bye week and are hungry for a win in the nation’s capital. After a strong start to their season and jumping out to a 6-2 record, the Argos have dropped their last three straight games, including back-to-back losses to rival Hamilton. Confirmed bet: Toronto Argonauts @ Ottawa RedBlacks -2 (one unit @ $1.94).


College Football for September 27 (AET)

NC State -18 @ South Alabama (one unit @ $1.95)
Maryland @ West Virginia -16.5 (one unit @ $1.91)
Central Michigan +25 @ Michigan State (one unit @ $1.91)
Vanderbilt @ Ole Miss +52.5 (one unit @ $1.91)
Northern Illinois @ Boston College -3 (one unit @ $1. 83)
Rice @ Baylor +74 (one unit @ $1.91)
TCU @ Texas Tech +5 (one unit @ $1.87)
Massachusetts @ Notre Dame +61 (one unit @ $1.91)
Georgia Tech @ Duke +55.5 (one unit @ $1.91)
UCF @ South Carolina +45 (one unit @ $1.91)
Texas A&M @ Arkansas +62 (one unit @ $1.97)
USC @ Arizona State +4 (one unit @ $1.93)

• Today’s other games (click here)


MLB tips for September 27 (AET)

Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox WIN (one unit @ $2.05)

Pittsburgh Pirates WIN @ Chicago Cubs (one unit @ $1.88)

San Francisco Giants @ Oakland Athletics +8.5 (one unit @ $1.87)

Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays +7 (one unit @ $1.95)

Milwaukee Brewers @ St Louis Cardinals -1.5 (one unit @ $1.95)

Cleveland Indians @ Kansas City Royals WIN (one unit @ $1.83)


Wales to keep England honest in RWC match-up (September 26)

Wales will believe they can come away with a victory in tonight’s Rugby World Cup Pool A clash at Twickenham. They have quietly amassed a run of seven wins from eight games. England have won the past two matches between these nations including an impressive 21-16 win in Cardiff during the Six Nations this year. But prior to that Wales claimed three consecutive wins including one at Twickenham. Even if the win proves just beyond them, Warren Gatland’s side will not go down without a fight and it is hard to see them being blown away by England. Expect this to clash to be in the balance until the end and Wales are worth supporting with an 8.5-point handicap advantage. Confirmed bet: England v Wales +8.5 (one unit @ $1.92).


Calgary to stamp authority over Winnipeg (September 26)

A Friday night match-up with the Calgary Stampeders at McMahon Stadium is a pivotal one for the Blue Bombers’ season, as they enter a three-game stretch against West Division opponents needing points to stay in the playoff hunt. The Stampeders, 2-0 against the Bombers this season and the CFL’s best team record-wise the last two seasons with a Grey Cup Championship to show for it. The Stampeders have won nine of the last 10 head-to-head meetings between these sides, while Matt Nichols has never beaten Calgary in his career. That won’t change here. Confirmed bet: Winnipeg Blue Bombers @ Calgary Stampeders -9 (one unit @ $1.91).


MLB tips for September 26 (AET)

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs -6.5 (one unit @ $1.97)

Tampa Bay Rays +1.5 @ Toronto Blue Jays (one unit @ $1.72)

Minnesota Twins WIN @ Detroit Tigers (one unit @ $1.95)

Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox -8 (one unit @ $1.97)

Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins -6.5 (one unit @ $2.06)

Texas Rangers WIN @ Houston Astros (one unit @ $2.26)

San Francisco Giants @ Oakland Athletics WIN (one unit @ $1.69)


Mercury the value in first game of West finals (September 25)

The Phoenix Mercury and Minnesota Lynx have met in the playoffs so often over the years that it’s only natural that a rivalry has developed. Round 4 starts tonight, when the Lynx host the Mercury in Game 1 of the Western Conference finals, the third straight season and fourth in the last five that the two teams have met with a trip to the WNBA Finals on the line. Thanks to injuries and trades, the Lynx starting five entered the playoffs having played a grand total of 50 minutes together for the season. They had to slug it out with the Sparks, and five points looks a very generous quote on the side of the Mercury. Confirmed bet: Phoenix Mercury +5 @ Minnesota Lynx (one unit @ $1.94).


Tough spot for Bearcats in week 4 College Football opener (September 25)

After back-to-back 9-4 seasons under Tommy Tuberville the 2015 Cincinnati Bearcats looked capable of an even bigger breakthrough with most of the offense back in action. But it has been a difficult start with Cincinnati’s comeback effort at home against Temple falling short in week 2 and the Bearcats nearly losing to Miami, OH last week across town. So far Memphis has looked like a team capable of playing for the division title even after losing 20 lettermen from last season’s 10-3 squad. Confirmed bet: Cincinnati Bearcats @ Memphis Tigers -8 (one unit @ $1.91)


MLB tips for September 25 (AET)

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (one unit @ $2.00)
San Francisco Giants WIN @ San Diego Padres (one unit @ $1.63)
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Colorado Rockies +11 (one unit @ $2.05)
Cleveland Indians @ Minnesota Twins WIN (one unit @ $1.75)


All Blacks unbackable favourites in RWC debut (September 24)

Rugby World Championship action continues tonight at the Olympic Stadium in London where New Zealand will take on Namibia. These battles of giants and minnows are an unfortunate side-product of the tournament, and the All Blacks are rated 76.5-point favourites. Namibia will be no match for the quality on show as many stars of the recent Super Rugby campaign get their first start of the tournament. In come the likes of Hurricanes duo TJ Perenara and Beauden Barrett, Highlanders centre Malakai Fekitoa and young Crusaders hooker Codie Taylor. Just to be safe they have 660 caps sitting on the bench (average 83) and also three centurions (Tony Woodcock, Keven Mealamu and Richie McCaw). No bet for us.


No blessing for Liberty in East opener (September 24)

The New York Liberty are in a super-tough spot in the opening game of the WNBA Eastern Conference finals, and it’s all the fault of the Pope. The Liberty lost the opener of their semi-final seriess in double overtime at home to Washington before winning 86-68 in the nation’s capital and pulling out a 79-74 victory at Madison Square Garden yesterday. This game is being played the following night because the Pope is coming to New York and will be at MSG on Friday. With the advantage of additional rest, we like the Indiana Fever as road underdogs here. Confirmed bet: Indiana Fever +2 @ New York Liberty (one unit @ $1.95).


MLB selections for Thursday September 24 (AET)

Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets -1.5 (one unit @ $2.04)
Arizona Diamondbacks +1.5 @ Los Angeles Dodgers (one unit @ $1.91)
Baltimore Orioles @ Washington Nationals -1.5 (one unit @ $2.26)
New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays +8.5 (one unit @ $1.93)
Tampa Bay Rays WIN @ Boston Red Sox (one unit @ $2.05)
San Francisco Giants WIN @ San Diego Padres (one unit @ $1.98)


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