Rugby World Cup betting: African champions represent value

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Updated: September 29, 2015

Rugby World Championship featured betting preview – Pool C: Tonga v Namibia, Sandy Park, Exeter, England; Wednesday, September 30, 1.45am (for nation profiles, click here; for the tournament schedule, click here)

 

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Two nations separated by just a whisker under 15,000 kilometres will clash in the south-west of England tonight in an attempt to chalk-up their first win of the 2015 Rugby World Cup. Tonga were on the wrong end of a 17-10 result to Georgia in their opener at Kingsholm. That loss against Georgia was Tonga’s third in five games against minnows at World Cups. Tonga’s recent record against the second-tier rugby nations is otherwise impressive though as they’ve won six of their past seven. But they’ve covered the -14 handicap just once in that sample and that was more than four years ago!

Before the start of the tournament, Tonga had high hopes of finishing in third place in their group, at least, which would have secured them qualification for the 2019 World Cup in Japan. Keep an eye on blindside flank Sione Kalamafoni, who is one of the stalwarts for Gloucester in the Aviva Premiership. Kalamafoni was one of a few forwards who stood his ground to Georgia’s physicality and he will look to continue where he left off in that encounter.

 

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Namibia (pictured above) suffered a 58-14 drubbing at the hands of defending champions New Zealand at the Olympic Stadium in London but rarely has a 44-point loss at a World Cup felt so much like a victory for a team of amateurs and semi-professionals. Still in search of their first ever World Cup win, head coach Phil Davies would have recognised this fixture and next week’s clash against Georgia as their only realistic chance to break that duck. If you exclude all of Namibia’s results against the two pool qualifiers from the past three World Cups then the stats aren’t too damning.

Only two of their six defeats came by more than 30 points. The Welwitchias’ inside centre Johan Deysel came off second best to Sonny Bill Williams in Namibia’s tournament opener but he impressed by crossing for a memorable try. More of the direct running, which secured him that five-pointer, should make him a handful for the Tongan defence. This should be an entertaining clash as both sides are rank outsiders who will be giving their all to avoid the bottom spot in Pool C.

 

 

Confirmed bet

Tonga v Namibia +18.5 (one unit @ $2.04)

 

Most recent results: 2-0, +1.93 units; overall record: 8-1, +7.79 units

England v Wales +8.5 (one unit @ $1.92) WIN (25-28)

Australia -58.5 v Uruguay (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (65-3)

• Selections are listed in three categories – 1) Suggested (likely bet but yet to be finalised); 2) Confirmed (locked in at the price listed); and 3) Leans (tips, but not recommended bets); all times quoted are Australian Eastern Time (AET); prices with thanks to Pinnaclebet (except where markets are not available), correct at time of publication. Results/comments on today’s games/races will follow in the next post.

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