Motorsport: Rosberg favoured in penultimate F1 race of 2014

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Updated: November 9, 2014
Bumpy, twisty and often wet – the F1 circus heads to Brazil for tonight's GP at Interlagos (pictured)

Bumpy, twisty and often wet – the F1 circus heads to Brazil for tonight’s GP at Interlagos (pictured)

2014 Formula 1 season betting preview – Brazilian Grand Prix: Interlagos, São Paulo, Brazil; Monday, November 10, 3am – preview by Adam Gibbins

Brazil has often hosted the final race of the F1 season but this year, the patchy and testing Autódromo José Carlos Pace circuit, better known by the name of the neighbourhood in which is located (Interlagos) is the venue for the penultimate race of 2014. There have been some sensational Brazilian GPs in previous years, with variable weather conditions and its traditional place as the season finale often adding to the tension. Russia provided one of the more pedestrian races of the season while the US GP in Austin also failed to deliver on a circuit many thought was ready-made for Formula 1 racing. While the intra-team battle at Mercedes has been fascinating in itself, hopefully the final two races of the season will provide some exciting racing deeper in the field and a chance for some under-performing teams to finish the year on a high.

Interlagos is an old-school affair – the bumpy surface and lack of grip has already left some teams with preparation issues ahead of the race. With heavy showers forecast for raceday, the chances of teams to find their ideal set-up prior to the race have been greatly reduced. Non-stop cornering through half of the lap plus inconsistencies between newly surfaced and older sections of track will put an emphasis on tyres and their management. From a punters’ point of view it’s still a two-horse race between Lewis Hamilton and Nico Rosberg at Mercedes, although Hamilton’s apparent edge over his rival has resulted in his price dropping with each race over the past two months. Despite coming off second-best to Rosberg in all three practice and qualifying sessions, Hamilton remains favourite here.

In the closest pole fight since Mercedes lost out to Williams in Austria, Rosberg lapped in 1m 10.023s which aced Hamilton’s 1m 10.056s by just 0.033s. The Williams duo of local favourite Felipe Massa and Valtteri Bottas were right on their tails even though, unlike the Silver Arrows, they didn’t improve on their second Q3 runs. Massa lapped in 1m 10.247s, Bottas in 1m 10.305s. Against initial dismal forecasts the track remained dry all day, which made things a lot easier for everyone. Sergio Perez and Daniil Kvyat both have seven-place grid penalties; the former’s for reckless driving in Austin, the latter’s the remainder of a ten-place engine-change penalty carried over from the United States so the grid is: Rosberg, Hamilton, Massa, Bottas, Button, Vettel, Magnussen, Alonso, Ricciardo, Raikkonen; Gutierrez, Hulkenberg, Sutil, Grosjean, Vergne, Maldonado, Kvyat, Perez.

 

Confirmed bets

Nico Rosberg WIN (one unit @ $2.10) – he has pole position and has nothing to lose compared to teammate Hamilton. He’ll be pushing all out to win both remaining races this season to keep his title chances alive.

Valterri Bottas top 3 (one unit @ $2.50) – if the Mercedes pair run into any trouble it’s likely that the Williams drivers will be in the best position to take advantage. Despite starting from fourth, Bottas has been the more consistent of the duo.

 

Most recent results: 1-1, +0.95 units; overall record: 12-15, +1.30 units

Valtteri Bottas top 3 (three units @ $1.65) WIN (3rd)

Sebastian Vettel top 6 (one unit @ $2.00) LOSE (8th)

• Selections are listed in three categories – 1) Suggested (likely bet but yet to be finalised); 2) Confirmed (locked in at the price listed); and 3) Leans (tips, but not recommended bets); all times quoted are Australian Eastern Daylight Time (AEDT); prices with thanks to Sportsbet (except where markets are not available), correct at time of publication. Results/comments on today’s games/races will follow in the next post.

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