The Oscars: Blanchett to complete awards clean sweep

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Updated: March 1, 2014
The Kodak Theatre, venue for the 86th Academy Awards

The Kodak Theatre, venue for the 86th Academy Awards

The movie industry spends half the year making movies and the other half patting itself on the back, with an award seasons that stretches from September to March. Picking your way through all the red carpets, gratuitous speeches, bad jokes and goodie bags can be exhausting. To avoid a stint in rehab our entertainment expert keeping her powder dry for the industry’s biggest nights – The Academy Awards on March 2. It’s been six weeks since the Academy Awards nominations were revealed and during that time three key awards ceremonies have been held – the Golden Globes (January 12), Critics Choice (January 16) and Screen Actors Guild (January 18). The winners at those events also have a good chance of taking home another statue this time next week. Our early tips for the Oscars are holding up well with most predicted winners still looking the goods.

 

Chiwetel Ejiofor in 12 Years A Slave

Chiwetel Ejiofor in 12 Years A Slave

Best Film

12 Years a Slave is still the obvious choice for Best Film, having already taken out the Golden Globe and Critics Choice award in that category. American Hustle picked up the SAG for best film but history reveals that this award has gone to the ultimate Oscar winner only twice before since 1995 when picking a different film to the Golden Globes and the Critics Choice (Crash, 2005 and The King’s Speech, 2010). Of the two, the Critics Choice awards has proven a more accurate predictor of the Oscars in recent times, picking the eventual Academy Award winner six of the past seven years.

 

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Cate Blanchett in Blue Jasmine

Best Actress

Nothing has changed for the ladies, with Cate Blanchett  (Blue Jasmine) a shoe-in for Best Actress. The Aussie has cleaned up during this year’s awards season, adding Golden Globe, Critics Choice, SAG awards to her impressive CV. In the eight years that all three have selected the same winner, the actress has gone on to take home an Oscar 87.5 per cent of the time. Blanchett’s nearest rival, Amy Adams (American Hustle) also won a Golden Globe for best actress, but her nod came in the Comedy/Musical category, while Cate came up trumps in the Drama genre. The Oscars has only one best actress category and Cate is the now-unbackable favourite.

 

Jared Leto and Matthew McConaughey in Dallas Buyers Club

Jared Leto and Matthew McConaughey in Dallas Buyers Club

Best Actor

Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club) has firmed to a red-hot favourite for the Best Actor statue, eclipsing early rival Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years A Slave) and dark horse Bruce Dern (Nebraska) at the Golden Globes, Critics’ Choice and Screen Actor’s Guild awards. Since 1995, all three ceremonies have chosen the same winner as the Academy Awards nine times, giving McConaughey a 50/50 chance of adding an Oscar to his mantle. Of the three, the Globes has the best record, with the same man taking home an Oscar and a Globe in the same year 76 per cent of the time since 1960. The SAG record isn’t too shabby either with the two ceremonies picking the same winner 77 per cent of the time since 1995. But, in both 2001 and 2002 all three awards ceremonies failed to pick the winner, which leaves the door open for Chiwetel Ejiofor.

 

Jennifer Lawrence (far right) in American Hustle

Jennifer Lawrence (far right) in American Hustle

Best Supporting Actress

In 85 years only two women have won back to back Oscars – Katharine Hepburn for Best Actress in 1967 and 1968 and Luise Rainer for Best Actress 1936 and 1937. And, only five women – Helen Hayes, Ingrid Bergman, Maggie Smith, Meryl Streep and Jessica Lange – have won both the Best Actress and the Best Supporting Actress awards during their careers. Could Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle) do the same this year? The 2013 Best Actress (Silver Linings Playbook) picked up Best Supporting Actress gongs at the Golden Globes but lost out to her closest rival Lupita Nyong’o (12 Years a Slave) at the Critics Choice and SAG awards.

Best Supporting Actor

Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club) still looks the goods here having already won the Golden Globe, SAG and Critics Choice in this category. The only real competition he faces is from Barkhad Abdi (Captain Phillips), who took out the Best Supporting Actor Category at the British Academy of Film and Television Arts Awards.

 

Confirmed bets (overall, posted 13/1)

Best Picture – 12 Years a Slave $1.40

Best Actor – Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years A Slave) $1.50

Best Actress – Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine) $1.20

Best Supporting Actor – Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club) $1.40

Best Supporting Actress – Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle) $4.50

Updated bets

Best Supporting Actress – Lupita Nyong’o (12 Years A Slave) $1.65

Best Original Screenplay – American Hustle $2.20

• Selections are listed in three categories – 1) Suggested (likely bet but yet to be finalised); 2) Confirmed (locked in at the price listed); and 3) Leans (tips, but not recommended bets); all times quoted are Australian Eastern Daylight Time (AEDT); prices with thanks to Bet365 (except where markets are not available), correct at time of publication. Results/comments will follow in a later post.

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